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mandag den 16. november 2009

Going on empty: Monday morning Quarterbacking.

I am back in London - and to my own surprise things does not look one Iota better than when I came here every second week.

Last night when driving to my apartment the taxi-driver told me he could not get a 250 GBP overdraft despite having been with his bank for twenty years!

Now he has to raise the money from his family to make his small business of running a Black Cab work - He saw less passengers, worked longer hours and felt depressed. Tell me about it!

Then after doing a guest host job with CNBC this morning - I took the liberty of checking the local shopping mall ! Wow - this rather upscale mall Whitley, had one in five shops closed, and of the shops still being open one in four was on CLOSING SALES!

Keep producing China - there is plenty of consumption coming your way. The world has become one big competition of EXPORTING. Let someone deal with your problems.

I hope the balance of the week in London will give more hope for the consumer as I am now getting seriously concerned about the markets.

We are at the phase where the stimulus is peaking - which can be seen in the much improved economic data (although the biggest amount of cash ever floaded to the market place still have left everyone short of trend growth).....what comes in its place?

Will private investment come through -not - will business investment re-emerge ? Hardly.........will rates stay low? Absolutely - so more of the artificial help....swapping future consumption for present.......

The marginal benefit of extra stimulus is waning. In 2006 one percentage point of extra growth came at a price of 1.5 USD, now the price is 7 USD. Japan have taught us what you get when you create the third bridge across the same river!

Well enough from me - its expensive to be a grumpy bear, but in closing here is a sound-bite from my guest hosting this morning: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1332366598&play=1

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

lørdag den 14. november 2009

If two men agree on everything, you may be sure that one of them is doing the thinking (Lyndon Johnson)

A quick Saturday blog from me: I have finally figuered out what Obama/Geithner/Bernanke modus operandi is based on: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon  or more dramatic: http://survive2012.com/

The only way to explain their actions and policies must be based on knowing its futile anyway!


I found the Mayan prophecy when reading a thriller and it struck me as the only sensible explanation for the comment/actions/policies enacted under what surprisingly to me now look an even more incompetent administration than that of W. Bush!

Another far more elegant commentator who is having a hard time not only with Geither et al, but also the never ending praise of China is Hugh Hendry: http://scribd.com/doc/22520780

His latest monthly report is so well written had there been a Nobel Price for financial market commentaries he surely would have won it for 2009 - unless obviously Obama runs away with it as he has once considered writing a commentary, which these days seems enough to win a Nobel price, but PLEASE READ IT. It is concise and raises several issues which I myself agree with:
  • The non-demise of the US Dollar
  • The non-believe in the Chinese miracle (where is the consumer for their production?)
  • Deflation - double-dip
Last week was big range trading - there was some "noises" that the "too big to fail means to big to live" could see regulation next week as the lobbyist fails to make their voice heard: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az7AcisnxsCA&pos=6

It seems Dimon agrees (or playing the game?): http://wallstreetpit.com/12093-jamie-dimon-too-big-to-fail-must-be-excised-from-our-vocabulary

The charts for banks should cause some concern:



Meanwhie the good old Dow Theory still not decided whether to confirm Primary & Secondary Bull Market or to make divergence indicating top in place for now....:



On the markets I have increased LONG US dollar exposure - and added slightly to option downsides - the odds of "see no evil - hear no evil " long environment is rising ... Even the bears now embrace this line of thinking as Goldman Sachs and others are now proclaiming more incoming STIMULUS is coming with the Job Summit in December -

Intentions are good - action better (Steen Jakobsen)... It seems to me that the last Deficit Summit brought nothing - I expect Job Summit will bring... Nothing ... The Obama policies are the worst nightmare this world have seen - when the Chinese engine have filled the last few storage facilities with useless products no one wants to buy - the day of reckoning is in ........This is 1999 all over - no values, no metrics for fair-value.....maybe the Mayan Calander is right ? :-)

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

PS: I will be in London for most of next week, but will try to update... nice week-end...

onsdag den 11. november 2009

There is no atheist in a fox hole - Weekly Investment Meeting

We had our weekly investment meeting and to say the least there is a matter of different opinions. In the blue corner we got the resident equity bull Mr. Lars Thørs, who sees no evil, hear no evil(but highly profitable) -and in the red corner we got yours sincerely who is on the verge of committing public Harakiri in frustration over how much B.S there is flying around on a daily basis.....


The gist of the conversation goes as follow:


There are really three if not four different scenarios for balance of 2009 and 2010:








Note: The X-axis is time, and Y- the return(yield)....


(Click on diagrams to enlarge)



Note: The different scenario's with impact on macro and asset allocation.
(Click on diagrams to enlarge)


In our opinion there will be a movement from presently: Sweet-spot through Double-dip into Crisis 2.0 over the next 6-9 month, but we could be wrong a below we have assigned our consensus vs. the market in terms of odds.

Note: Limus Capital view relative to consensus


The conclusion on the outlook is: It's either going to work or not, we do not see how a V-shaped recovery can be established - but oddly enough here we are at odds with some of the major players in the macro world, who all seems to think the bubble in US Treasury is the biggest, but while we agree on the overvaluation we feel that if we move out of the Sweet-spot then it will be due to increased concern about rising yields on Treasuries - in other words - a starting crisis of confidence.


This scenario is based on several key points:


Maturity of both banks and government debt has shortened considerably making the next 24 month the biggest issuance period in monetary history


There are simply not enough demand to take the supply in our opinion, which in turn will force the rates higher. The US Government has shortened the average maturity from 70 month in 2000 to less than 50 month early this year (http://tinyurl.com/ydbnnqj) - this happens as the public debt reaches 8.000.000.000.000 USD (8 trillion US Dollars), but more importantly almost 50% of that debt expires in the next year! 


This should on its own create some concern, but at the same time the banking system has done exactly the same exercise according to Moody's report out this week: http://tinyurl.com/yhf2nm4


The average maturities of new debt issuance by Moody's rated-banks around the world fell from 7,2 years to 4,7 years over the last five years! This constitutes the shortest average maturity in history. Practically it means the banks will face maturing debt of 10.000.000.000.000 (10 trillion US dollars) between now and 2015 - or 7.000.000.000.000 between now and 2012.


Let us not kid ourselves, there is always some debt maturing - T-bill normally constitutes 30-35% of funding, but the point being that even the slightest crack in confidence could have a snowball effect on confidence and catapult  rates higher, as the shortened maturity increases the demand for higher yield and in a world of falling disposable income (due to higher unemployment) - the private sector savings will be in great demand across all assets not just funding the mighty US of A.


More stimulus & how Obama could be forced for more to 'print money again despite a political lack of will to do so


The recent talk of town among Obama's clones is to not only keep up the spending but even to increase it as he did too little to start with! Lately former Labour Secretary Robert Reich and Paul Krugman have called for such measures. The philosophy was reflected in my 'analysis' on earlier blog this week.


From Monday morning quarterbacking, Nov. 9, 2009: Geithner said it best this weekend: "If we put the brakes on too quickly, we will weaken the economy and the financial system, unemployment will rise, more businesses will fail, budget deficits will rise, and the ultimate cost of the crisis will be greater," he told reporters in Scotland. "It is too early to start to lean against recovery."

Ok, let me get this straight: So if we continue spending tax payers money then: we will have smaller deficit, lower unemployment, less business failures, and smaller ultimate bill for resurrecting the world? If that does happen I will be playing for Denmark upfront in the next World Cup in soccer in South Africa next year (despite my 45 yrs and less than fit fitness level)



My friend Daniel Arbess, who runs the Xerion Hedge Fund inside Perella, Weinberg Partners had some excellent point on how US and Europe is mired in deflationary forces for two out of three macro themes working presently:
  • Consumer deleveraging. Rising unemployment ==> Deflation
  • Improving earnings via cost reductions and cheaper finished product imports from China ==> Deflation
  • Zero rate policy drives investors to speculative investments ==> Inflationary....
Dan has several others good observations among them that such a "global imbalance" is continuing leading to some sort of confrontation.


But all of the above really talks about is a double-dip, the fact that post the biggest stimulus in world history, the result was not even back to trend growth, and in 2010 without more stimulus then Crisis 2.0 will come back to haunt.


In order to make this more operational this our expected returns in the different scenarios:



Click to enlarge

It is worth noting that the key in Crisis 2.0 is the LACK OF POSITIVE RETURN from government bonds - this is the main driver of the worst to come scenario.


In normal markets long Government bonds would perform in times of crisis, in this one we have -3,9% expected return and the only positive being a much smaller volatility relative to Sweet-spot.


The way we use this is not as a way to make money, but these three basic possible scenario's are the ones we need to navigate. (The above is very much work in progress)


Right now we are in the sweet-spot for better or worse, and the expected return on this is close to 16%! 


Something which will please the market, but we(Limus) have a much smaller 1 in 4 odds vs. 2 in 5 odds among the consensus investors for this - again we stand almost alone with our projections, but as Groucho Marx said in wire to his club wanting him as a member : "PLEASE ACCEPT MY RESIGNATION. I DON'T WANT TO BELONG TO ANY CLUB THAT WILL ACCEPT PEOPLE LIKE ME AS A MEMBER"


Investment outlook conclusion:


There is nothing on the horizon indicating the see-no-evil-hear-no-evil lose monetary policy will end - on contraire - the central banks, the pundits, the politicians all firmly believe spending more money will create smaller deficits, higher long term growth, in this environment keeping to your Beta exposure is the only option. Our Beta model is very simple and can be executed through ETF's:




Strategy:


We continue to hold a negative outlook on the market in Limus Capital Partners, but our outside partners are either neutral or major bullish on the market. 


The correct allocation presently is to benchmark everything (the exercise of Beta-chasing) - in our case: Beta model long plus some down-side protection through our Alpha plays (which is the ones we describe mostly here on the blog)


The charts and most of the work done for this presentation was courtesy of my partner Mr. Jesper Christiansen.


Safe trading,


Steen

torsdag den 29. oktober 2009

Silence is Golden

The market is now slightly oversold on my model - the top seems to be firmly in place and now we will await end-of-month-buying or not.

No doubt many fund managers are 'screen watching' over the next 48 hrs, potentially having to act on Monday should we take out 1050 in earnest.

It's not easy being a fund manager these days, actually never is, but 2009 the story very quickly became one of:

In 2008 we had the worst financial crisis, probably ever, and as expected 2009 became the worst year on the real economy. The numbers, the long line of unemployed confirms it.

Then the different governments decided to spend 5%-6% of GDP to 'safe the world from breaking down' but all they really did was to circle the wagons on their croonie friends in Wall Street - that's not a political statement, merely a matter of fact.

Now at the end of 2009 the banks - the major banks- are making billions on tax subsidized trading revenue (borrowing at zero with Geithner/Bernanke and placing them in...... Bernanke/Geithner long bonds) - you could say the its look very much like what a certain Madoff was doing recently, but do not let the facts come in your way.

Along the way, there was a public apology from Mr. Greenspan, effectively renouncing his Ayn Rand - Objectisvim and 'Efficient Market Hyphothesis' along the way. For many of you this may be relatively irrelevant if not for the fact that the whole principle idea of letting the market rule themselves came out of these two central "theories" - which Greenspan wholeheartdly subscribed to.

http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/10908/Alan_Greenspan__I_was__terribly__wrong/

The only real issue with Ayn Rand and EMH being it leaves "morale" to the markets - and I must say: I have wrestled with the "morale" issue for a long time, but as its often the case in practical life, the answer came through observing the nature - in this case the banks, the politicians and the bureaucrats.

The conclusion: There is NO MORALE limit for people when they spend, invest, use other people money - I will even offer the preposition that man/woman generally have a lack of morale when it comes to dealing with money (and a lot of other stuff - which I will leave for your psychiatrist) but this old trader has lost all faith in the market place - the key issue remaining is the one of: What do you put in its place? I do not know - but 90% of financial people are talking non-sense, and 98% of what is produced in banks are waste not only time but also the paper its printed on - this a reality people needs to deal with, as the new world order in finance is not one where the government will come to rescue - ironic that the "free market system" most likely will be replaced by one where 'accountability' is the true measurement of success - lets see how is prepared for this down the line.

On the markets I have not traded for over a week really - got all the same positions as of last investment meeting - I'm surprised in two things:

The high level of GBP and oil keeping its bid tone - the rest is as expected and I will now await the month-end before putting further chips on the table (For those in doubt of my positions - follow the Twitters)

Safe trading,

Steen

mandag den 26. oktober 2009

When the fire breaks out the door will be to small for everyone to get out..

Dear Friends,

doom.jpg

Above picture courtesy of my old friend: Ole Riis...

This is EXACTLY what I am talking about and today there is further evidence which needs to 'ADDED'


  1. George Soros - like him or not he is the 'Champ' and probably the only person I ALWAYS listen to: http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/10/26/face-to-face-with-george-soros/

  2. Bank of America breaking ALL support - this could be key.... http://www.freestockcharts.com/tweets/?chart=a3f16fa5-7e8d-4a38-a4e8-3168158165f5&refURL=http%3a%2f%2ffsc.bz%3a81%2f1NK

  3. Dow Theory..continues.: http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$TRAN,$INDU

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

torsdag den 22. oktober 2009

Frontline on the go-go 90s....

Been watching this tonight: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/etc/synopsis.html



You have to admire the quality, the pictures, the directing of this 55 min program from PBS (my favourite TV when living in the US - actually 2nd after Yankees/Giants) - and it is a lesson in what an idiot Greenspan was.......

Brew a cup of coffee and sit down and enjoy, please!

Then a comment from a young student lecturing me on why Philosophy is no better than economics as an education - what a talented writer!

Hello Steen,

You don't know me but I have been following your blog pretty closely and we also shared the same roof for a year in saxo bank (where I still work as a sales trader while studying economics in the lovely tiny town of lund). The reason i am writting to you has nothing to do with economics it's just a warning to NOT waste your second life studying philosophy. At least not in a university. Having been to school in a country where philosophy is force fed to every student (something like finnish kids having to learn swedish) i have a few words of advice for you. Typical philosophy class goes like this:

- Teacher tells you to read text (say plato's republic, or socrates' apology if the teacher is kinky) and then write an essey about it. Then the possibilities are:

1. You don't understand it and he does not understand as well. But nietzche did understand and wrote something about it so the teacher knows how to rationalize the bad grade you will get.
2. You don't understand it but he does. He is a genious and of course he is bitter because nobody else in the world understands him, he is still virgin even though he teaches classes with 1/10 Male/Female ratios (the reason i took philosophy classes back in the old days) and worst of all he has financial problems. He fails your paper and you are not even in the mood to ask him why, just repeat the class and hope that next year it's being taught by a less clever teacher. Eventualy you get disapointed, drop out of class and study economics instead.
3. You understand it but the teacher doesn't. He pushes the button, the floor below you opens and you find yourself in a pit of crocodiles, snakes and piranhas. So long sucker, better luck in your third life!

Above all, if you decide to study philosophy anyway, do NOT do it in Greece (and preferably not in UK, sweden or germany either). Try some country that doesn't try to teach it like it's math. If you really really can't find one do this: Study MATH but only socialize with philosophy teachers. They will speak to you without seeing you as a person retarded/severely retarded/too clever to be kept alive.

by the way, very nice presentation, unfortunately in lund 90% of the time we have to hear the swedish (my correction) idiots speaking... But hey, we were founded in 1666, so all our clever guys are long dead, or retired and moved to an island house in greece which they bought back when SEK could still buy stuff.

Best regards,
Lukas

He talked with more claret than clarity.

Dear Friends,

Not that I want to impose on you my views, but often when having to do a speech you need to clarify/project your thinking more clearly..

This presentation was done with help of my good friend Olof Lindgren and my two partners Jesper Christiansen and Carsten Høgh.

The presentation took place last night at the Copenhagen Business School and hence the CV and other 'crap'... but some key take aways:

Denmark - for those of you mainly interested in out Danish view go to the back-end of the presentation.... u will find some food for thought.

Yield - for those w. mortgages... rate exposure ... the core-inflation discussion could be of interest... as it seems we will continue twds lower yields...

Stock - our 'gut' feeling and tech. model tells us.. there may be breather in this rally...around now ....whether its merely correction before higher.....will need to be seen....but 930.00 in S&P is our target for now (1100 now)

Macro - the global imbalances... are now worse than before the crisis -.. as china reserves keep rising.....

Bottom line: the world feels good.. lots of hope.. but we are afraid..this is ....the calm before the storm.. but we(I) have been wrong before..

Enjoy at least there is some good pictures in this presentation...

Download the presentation from this link: http://drop.io/5jdmmbn

Safe trading


Steen Jakobsen

tirsdag den 20. oktober 2009

Ceteris Paribus - Investment Meeting...

Tuesday means Investment Meeting .....The conclusion became:

There is 60/40 chance of more of the same - market is committed to upside now, the standard protocol says:

  • Recession is over
  • Fed will remain on the sideline at least through 2010
  • Earnings will be coming back after Q2/Q3 - was cost reduction, inventory build - Outlook upgrades relative to downgrades: +20% - setting a very 'high bar' for Q4.... Market will be good in Q4 - it's final. (says consensus)

We are however slightly concerned about this chart:

Gold, US Dollar(Inversed) and Crude(click to enlarge)


The fact Bernanke mentioned: An Asian Bubble in his speech yesterday could mean some slight distress with the "bubble" in Gold, US Dollar and Crude. (Created by reserves accumulation in China)

Crude going above 80$ historically been negative, and above 100 $ key concern.

The old rule of thumb on oil vs. growht goes:

For every 10 $ price increase in Crude - GDP loss is 0.4% in OECD - going from 40 $ to 80 $ means loss of 1.6% growth....Ceteris Paribus.....

But.. the real interesting discussion was based on the discussion "core-inflation" / Taylor-gap which led us to following conclusion:

There is no way the "traditional" rates will go up - but how about TRADING MARGINS ?

Core-inflation never moves - 35% of the index is "rents" - it's the equivalent of having a stock market index where 35% of the index is in bonds!!!! Joke as a policy measurement.....but it's yet another of the Alan-I-will-cut-rates-as-soon-as-I-can-to-become-the oldest-most-incompetent-central-banker-in-history-Greenspan.......

PCE - Core inflation -mean around 1.8/2.0% for 15 years!


A hike in trading margin would serve the right political masters plus its an effective way of short-cutting the never ending global imbalances going on again.......

More on this tomorrow as I will submit on this web a speech I am giving at The Finance Lab on Copenhagen Business School: http://tinyurl.com/yg3tpom with plenty of charts and fun. Link will be posted tomorrow night.

For now:

We still believe top is in place - but the BULLS not going to walk away without a fight - the fact remains: It would be suicide not to be long this market for fund managers, but it could, very likely, also be suicide to be long the market now.. :-)Safe trading,

Steen

mandag den 19. oktober 2009

Is it time or not - that's the question...

To make sure I follow my own advice I bought some 970.00 puts December in the S&P - for about 8.25/9.00 per contract. My work on the models keep indicating the top should be near or in place - and the objective on the down-side is minimum 930.00.

Tomorrow I will try to validate this objective - but it was expensive Monday back ignoring the first rule of trading - no edge means no positions...... ;-(

There is so much momentum in the market and I was "surprised" to see how the big Private Equity Funds all talk about EXIT from their long positions - some even admitted: "It is doubtful" how long the "window" for IPO's is open - once again I am reminded of the 1999/2000 analogy... but more on this later/tomorrow.

Also bought some 1.5600 Nov. late GBP puts -clearly there was some technical trading in GBP last week, and the incoming data may surprise - but the "rebound" is built on bank bonus' and profit, but the international bankers (and hedge funds) are leaving the UK is steady stream. I am not one for standing in their way...

Safe trading,

Steen

søndag den 4. oktober 2009

Sunday night quarterbacking...

I'm sitting here a Sunday night watching the Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriot, so what is more relevant than some Sunday night quarterbacking:

Let me offer some direct thought on these markets - no apologies - only the gut-feeling - and let me stress that I'm a simple speculator with no predictive powers, but for now it seems the stars are lining up for further correction....

There is, as always, a big risk of ...bottom fishing tomorrow, and there may too much "consensus" on downside... but on the other hand... if we came down from Mars today - looked at correlations, the incoming data, vix, technincal levels, yields, .... .we wud probably objectively get a little concerned...

This could be time to forget the ........narrow trading ranges, the scalping move towards as a bare minimum to buy some volatility...

I "like" when several indicators points to the same conclusion - and I must say the additional "index" analysis I enclosed(see below in this blog) .. on the "end of recession" in my, obviously biased assumption, concludes that.... the "perception" of the new reality is much better/higher than the reality... which also confirms why unemployment keeps rising - why Obama is having political problems, why geopolitics is finally back in the frame (note: We have not discussed geo-risk for more than 18 mth!!!!)....).........

Also the rhetoric has changed.. there is a certain amount of complacency among policy makers - they feel vindicated - succesfull.....

My simple assumption remains... 60% chance of top in place - if this week is net down week, I think its time to add some chips to the table.. but there is long week ahead of us.... but...... the negative compounding is back biting at the bulls......and as long as water does not run up walls. there is a certain logic to the honeymoon of Obama, the stock markets, and the feel good factor being over...

A few charts: Break down in yield is NEGATIVE says John Murphy: http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.a/6a0105370026df970c0120a5bb206c970b-pi

Volatility have seen a low..: http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.a/6a0105370026df970c0120a6124c50970c-pi

And finally.. .some "quant" analysis of the actual economy - as a anti-dote to the CNBC sensational driven data analysis:
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ads_long.pdf

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ads_2000.pdf

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ads_compare.pdf

Definition and background:
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-aruoba-diebold-scotti-index-the-sp-500-3059.html

Strikes me as super interesting..

Night and safe trading,

Steen

tirsdag den 29. september 2009

Chasing the end consumer....where is he? Have you seen him?

Todays investment meeting was short, but productive:

We ended up chasing the end consumer of all the "good" and goods that this fiscal stimulus has and will produce.

It is all well and good to analyse things getting better - it's even correct, from the stand-point of corporate earnings, but.... who is this end user? Where does he/she live?

Clearly the US consumer no longer wants to be part of the game of chicken, as their "balance sheet" is in such a bad state: lower house prices, eroded pension funds, and outlook to lower real earnings & potential unemployment

The money is on China and Japan to create more domestic demand - and I am sure it will produce more final demand, but the problem being... their saving rate is 40% or more, so it takes a lot of Chinese to replace just one US consumer.

Chart China - getting bigger GDP but spend less as percentage of GDP (source: David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff)

(Click on chart for larger version)


Fortunately China is factor rich on people, but I doubt the local peasants, celebrating the 60th year Anniversary of PROC (http://tinyurl.com/ycorzmo) this week is too concerned about these matters, but the cheerleaders of the world keeps talking about the amazing Chinese story....but may I ask again? Who is buying their stuff.

Looking at the incoming data it is becoming clear that the velocity of improvement is at best stagnant and at worst falling - the past two weeks has not done much good on the upside, except maybe for the 20K better jobless claims last week. The worst being the renewed slow homes sales...

It is also very interesting to note that the main benchmarks of bubble/euphoria/China: Copper, Gold and Crude are all "correcting" their up-move - this could be merely a small correction inside major cycle, but being the concerned chap I'm - I got feeling market is long, very long.....all of the above assets.

Chart 2: Copper, Crude & Shanghai


Our main conclusion remains this:


  • Market trades on momentum (nothing wrong with that per se..... although it is EXTREMELY tiresome for old man like me.....)

  • It's impossible to define top in place presently (You can do all sorts of analysis, but from technical and valuation perspective it remains a two sided story)

  • We note data & commodities does not like last two weeks(see chart)

In the equity space, our resident equity guy, Mr. Carsten Høgh, claims: Nothing is cheap any longer, and that caused some tactical talks on whether stock managers would move to "defend" their positions as we enter Q4?

The fact that most of their "profit" this year has come from low quality stocks with no or small earnings - and from increases in multiples (S&P has moved from P/E of 10 to 18 today.....) would indicate some willingness to scale-down their holdings based on Carsten premise: If it's not cheap, it's close to being expensive - We have expectation that there will be move away from cyclicals and into Big Cap again (Tesco, Wal-Mart, Colgate, Coke, H&M, Diago etc.).


The overriding strong argument for buying stocks remains: cheap funding (read: liquidity), cheap US Dollar and cheap talk in Washington (Obama promises alto - but have much of the items on the G-20 can he ACTUALLY get through Congress?).....which are all good arguments, we have some idea, still, that the next two weeks will be the peak (Read old blog: http://steenjakobsen.blogspot.com/2009/09/next-big-trend-shift-comes-in-october.html)

We are getting close to this END DATE.... and our cyclical model indicated going in to Monday that the markets was slightly oversold, but the key for the next two weeks becomes how much further we can move up before the market finally puts in medium-term top........ We look at Fridays number as as a potential "game breaker" - but as always... it's not a science but more of guess.

STRATEGY:

We remain light in risk and we will be looking to increase negative play as Non.farm is out........for now... the momentum rules..

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

fredag den 25. september 2009

The golden rule is that there are no golden rules. Bernard Shaw

Short blog today as I waste my time waiting for the mighty policy makers utter their final communique nonsense. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/25/g20-communique-Pittsburgh

This morning we had a "heated" argument in the office, the resident GOLD BUG Carsten was soooooo keen for me to read part of speech given by the mighty hedge fund manager John Paulson on gold.

The sentence which was supposed to get me excited read: "...and he observed that if one thinks about gold in a three or five-year time horizon (instead of hour-to-hour/day-to-day/week-to-week), the probability increases of gold being higher over time (most likely, much higher)"

What total load of nonsense! The probability of gold going up in 1 min, 30 min, 1 hours, 1 day, 1 month or 1 year is EXACTLY the same - there is no carry rates in Gold so even the Hold-and-keep argument is nonsense, but as this was said by the billionaire Paulson it be must right ????

This type of argument typifies all of us - we are arguing circular : There are NO.. and I mean NO real new analysis coming to the market, so instead we rank the quotes from the investment gurus according to their latest position bias. Makes sense. If its higher buy more. End of argument.

I think it is time for people to find the annual survey from Barron's on mutual funds - the one that states: Always sell the best performing managers in a quarter and buy the bottom performing manager - It's a mean-reverting game when it comes to "guessing" correctly - Even futurist miss 99% of all their calls......

On the note of Gold I will issue STERN warning on potential for all of you/them being disappointed:

CHART 1: Gold daily (XAUUSD).. Trend line - 10 days exit comes in a 990.00 - so does old top from June...in other words be forewarned - should gold close below 889.00 we could see some stops get started on the down-side. (Click on chart to enlarge)

Also, one of the top players in commodity trading: Larry Williams, whom I am lucky enough to share information with, he has a stern warning in his latest update video: http://www.ireallytrade.com/TVStation/LarryTV.html

Finally,

There is clearly a consensus in the world presently that 50% of the world's GDP is in an inflationary paradigm(US, UK, China and Japan), while other 50% of will use "deflation" as the path to normality. This being mainly ECB and Europe.

The argument makes sense: Europe has the worst demographics and needs to increase competitiveness this will happen in deflationary environment as low growth enforces lower salaries, redundant industries disappear.......

The problem though remains: Who will buy the worlds goods?

Last a link with my very own top ranked guru: Julian Robertson (listen please)

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/09/julian-robertson-us-may-face-armageddon.html

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

torsdag den 24. september 2009

Pigs can't fly or can they?

The gathering of policy makers in Pittsburgh (http://blog.pittsburghsummit.gov/index.php/blog/entry/sustainable_growth/) as of tonight reminded me of the "classic discussion" of whether pigs can fly or not? (http://tinyurl.com/ycfzb43)



Flying pigs aside - I'm being told from some reliable sources that today the S&P is up in 101% of the time, when S&P has been down on Fed day.... Yes, the counting rules in this world of arcane nonsense. I also note that Premier Brown is getting seriously "dumped" by his American sweetheart (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/sep/24/brown-obama-snub-michael-white) - which is for me quite interesting as if..... Brown calls an election the opposition has promised to test the Lisbon Accord with voters - With Ireland voting on October 2nd the EU could be much closer to ...serious crisis than presently priced in..

Well on to the matter at hand the G-20 - here is my two cents, and it's two cents worth:

  • The mere fact Merkel says there will no deal on Tobin tax at this G-20 meeting disgust me more than I can even tell you.. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobin_tax) . We are much closer to having the policy makers do a serious mistake than at any time in my trading life. Policy makers are high on their "success" (Creating articificial growth via expansion in public sector demand and state supported free trading regimes for banks..) - Any trader will tell you the most dangerous time to trade is when you feel invincible - statistically you have biggest chance of losing big after winning big. We are, in my simple and obscure thinking, very close to see a live experiment of "the law of unintended consequences"..... Odds: 75% of something "stupid" to happen

  • US dollar risk - do not ignore the French "sources" calling for weaker EUR/USD - anything north of 1.3000 in EUR/USD is a total joke and merely pushes European growth behind the rest of world quarter-by-quarter cyclically. You may not want to own US Dollar, but owning EUR will for the balance of this year could be worse...... G-20 needs to address - or rather return - to the "strong US dollar policy" - Summers/Geithner must understand that to continue to be competitive creating demand for US asset you need stronger/stable currency - otherwise the US dollar soon becomes the G-20 equivalent of Zimbabwe. If any surprises comes out of the G-20 the most likely candidate will be "clearer" views on the levels of currency in my opinion. Odds: Less than 20 pct.

  • Bonus regulation. Who cares to be honest? My trading presently does not exactly create expectations of a bonus. Seriously though, up-and-to the financial crisis the bonus culture could be rationalised(Close system with shareholders sharing risk/reward), but now.... with pretty much all the banks being public owned - it is, us, the tax payers who pay for dealers taking risk which is pre-guaranteed to work (The Central Bank lends the banks @ 0% - then they turn around and by leveraged Government Bonds @ 3-4 pct... if there ever was a FREE LUNCH this is it - and it constitutes a MAJOR MORAL RISK. There will be strong wording and it will ruin the bonus culture for better or worse. The bankers got too greedy - and all of the sudden the whole reason we have this recession is bonus!!!!!!! AW.. OCFGG##¤¤¤¤¤ - What a load of rubbish! - This nightmare we are in is based on: wrong policy decisions (Read: Alan-I-will-lower-rates-at-any-sign of trouble-Greenspan)

  • Volatility -promise me one thing, please! DO-NOT-GO-HOME-SHORT-VOLATILITY(gamma) over the G-20. There is only one way for rest of the year - serious elevated levels of volatility - Volatility is uncertainty of paths - This week-end could become the financial market equivalent of Churchill's: The darkest hour (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Darkest_Hour)

Strategy:


This simple, humiliated, trader is still in strategic mode: short 1 unit S&P, 1 unit EURUSD and looking for volatility plays for next month.

Safe trading,

Steen

onsdag den 23. september 2009

It's all circular.. Mini macro note

Short note leading to "exciting" end to the week with FOMC (tonight), G-20 from tomorrow onwards, and Sundays German Election. We had our weekly investment yesterday and it was not much of an event to be honest - I will write the usual log for it later tomorrow, but bottom line

There are no signs of this "liquidity driven" market stopping for now..

Going into Fed and G-20 we note with some surprise a couple of central bank moves: Bank of Canada announced yesterday on their web-site:

BANK OF CANADA TO END TERM LOAN FACILITY OCTOBER 28
BANK OF CANADA TO END PRIVATE SECTOR PRA PROGRAM OCTOBER 27
BANK OF CANADA MAKES LIQUIDITY PROGRAM ANNOUNCEMENT ON WEB SITE
BANK OF CANADA TO END TERM LOAN FACILITY OCTOBER 2
BANK OF CANADA TO END PRIVATE SECTOR PRA PROGRAM OCTOBER
BANK OF CANADA SIGNALS END TO SOME EMERGENCY LIQUIDITY PROGRAM

Bank of Norway the today announced they were considering hiking rate

These are early leaders but it is clear indication that most centralbanks are now at least considering their exit strategy. This is ONE MAJOR MACRO change which needs to be monitored into-FOMC and G-20 - the consensus is for all meetings to "promote and confirm the bias for no-exit and loose monetary policy". Risk is for less "bearish comments" than expected...

The second and more relevant issue is the US Dollar: There is NO sentiment or positions supporting the US Dollar.... but with Gold above 1.000 US dollars and US Dollar falling each and every day the central bankers can not IGNORE the warning signals.

The risk from here is that the central bankers realise that a strong US dollar will be in the interest of the US. The only way to hold down the 10 year yield (as proxy for funding price of US deficit) will be to make the US dollar stronger in order for foreign investor to at least make money on the currency. Clinton understood this - and so did Summers who has major role in the new joke of an administation

I expect some periphael changes in US willingness to accept continued weaker US Dollar - if not at the G-20 then in Fed official comments...

Buy some 3 month USD c EUR p.. here - Europe is toast @ 1.4800, but as Jesper correctly says: Who cares? The politicians are afraid to do the right things as waning growth and rising unemployment are more "tangible" issues to deal with..

Strategy:

Remains the same - looking to exit long and go short...but I'm alone

Safe trading


Some links for you:

Fed said to start talks with dealers on using reverse repos

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax.FBWNLB5_o

Stock rally will end within six months, Tice says:

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5viQG5nbLkg

FX Concepts: S&P has 2 weeks 'til tumble starts'

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSTRE58L2D020090922?sp=true

The Fed's dollar conundrum

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/22/news/economy/fed.financing.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009092217

Safe trading,

Steen

mandag den 21. september 2009

Where the telescope ends the microscope begins, and who can say which has the wider vision? Victor Hugo

This is note which starts a new investment phase for me - for most of the year I have been willing to trade intra-day and with the momentum, but now it is the time to move back into medium-term macro and respect the laws of economics/mean-reversion.

There is some evidence of the this week or next two weeks being the cyclical tops - which will be followed by a "correction" of 10-15% before we again goes into the year-end high for the year. The market is now driven by small investors and "late-to-the-party" types throwing everything they got to join the euphoria of how well things are going..... (Ignoring the queue of people joining the jobless ranks day-in-and-day out.......)

All of this is "sponsored" by:


  • Low interest rates and outlook for further 6-12 month of loose monetary policies courtesy of the politicians/central bankers
  • Out gap & rising unemployment across the world anchoring inflation
  • The cheerleader group consisting of politicians, central bankers and investment bank economist's every day supporting the idea things are not only improving, but they are all smarter than God.
  • An expected significant upside surprise in earnings based on this recovery "surprising" the consensus according to... the consensus (I know the sentence on it own does not make sense, but trust me that is the whole argument!)
  • A need to allocate to from ZERO income interest products to 100% allocation to stocks.
  • Sentiment which reminds me of 1999/2000 - there are more "smart" people telling me how much money they made in stocks last few month than you can fit into the new Wembley Stadium.

On the other hand there is absolutely some truth to the fact the Doom-sayers has been pronouncing the end of the world forever and we are all, the macro managers, guilty of projecting to Armageddon, much similar to this "dissing" of Zerohedge: http://www.zerohedge.net/ at hand in this link.

I have for the longest time been a "fan" of Terry Landry @ www.ttheory.com after reading the book: Pit Bull by Martin "Buzzy" Schwartz (http://www.amazon.com/Pit-Bull-Lessons-Streets-Champion/dp/0887309569) but to the point:

Terry is looking for top in Mid-October, and I have to add Terry is not prone to sentimental involvement in his trades! Presently there are two suggested dates: This week and next or slightly overshoot into Mid-October - we reached the overbought area Friday....but with G-20 this week-end in Pittsburgh it will be low volatility week, followed by in my opinion serious INCREASE in all VOLATILITIES going into month-end post G-20.

(click on chart to larger version)

Another of my favourite "friends" Mr. Fintag: http://fintag.com/archive/2009/09/21/ states today: "Today we reach the top of the equity markets, the top of the so called W and slowly but surely the overvalued fake market will crumble. In the meantime we look at some sensible news reporting from newspapers than may soon be non-profit organisations [Editor: They already are ...]"

The key advice for this will be: Buy VOLATILITY in any product this week...........

The development I expect this week will be.... some selling of today as we had massive option expiry this past Friday with gigantic volume going through - last time we had: option expiry/explosive volume the S&P fell 27 points! This is short note I wrote internally this week-end:

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE5842HG20090905

Nice run down ahead of Pittsburgh by Reuters - the market is looking for confirmation of V-shaped recovery, the improvement in earnings & political will to sustain the fiscal stimulus - the price? Politically: some sort of tough stance on bonus's and obviously
higher taxes for years to come.

There is growing believe in the market this will continue and I note the MASSIVE volume registered on Friday with no real effect yet indicating alot of money went to work.......

Adv. volume* 1,117,340,240
Decl. volume* 1,134,669,814
Total volume* 2,275,042,754
Closing tick +204
Closing Arms (TRIN)† 1.40 ...

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t

Then the lead into G-20 meeting - there will comments upon comments on how the bonus's should be cut and every single politician will try to make his mark on the agenda. I noted one very positive comment over the week, watching the BBC World service, they said India now willing to discuss climate goals - this is a first and probably merely playing for the gallery......

Finally, we need address the issue of EVENT RISK presently at stake:

Last week Israel Premier all of the sudden disappear of to Russia? He was MIA for a while according to Jerusalem Post: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1251804532464&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull - then later last week Iran get booted out Caspian Sea meeting by....Russia? http://www.televisionwashington.com/floater_article1.aspx?lang=en&t=1&id=13856 . This could be conspiracy thinking, but you can not ignore that the timing for potential strike by Israel into Iran is running out of time - was Israel seeking "indirect" approval ? This is something we need to monitor - impact on gold, crude, us dollar etc at stake.

Unfortunately history tells us in times of RECESSION is the time of increased risk for wars/conflicts....

Strategy:

Sold 1 unit of EURUSD @ 1.4717 outright - 1.47! EUR - think about it - unemployment only just starting to rise in Europe - full impact from recession will be felt in Q4 and Q1-4 2010 - I wish you all good luck if you are planning expansions presently - and EURO at 1.4700 is at least 17 figures too high, considering the biggest FX game in town remains one of: COMPETITIVE DEVALUATIONS (which presently has GBP(UK) in the lead......

Sold 2 units of S&P (1063 & 1059) - will buy some volatility when markets opens today.....

Bought 1 unit of BUNDS... 120.34.

No stops for now.. these are positions I expect to hold for minimum 30 days.....

Conclusion:

Not only is the weather "peaking" this week-end so will the markets...it is time to look at your "emergency" plans...they could come handy..

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

Twitter: http://twitter.com/SteenJakobsen


fredag den 4. september 2009

Delay is the deadliest form of denial. C Northcote Parkinson

European anti-Bank mood is changing rapidly...to the worse!!! (See below article)

In Dublin today, a place where the Government have less than 17% support in polls - three weeks before Lisbon referendum, but more importantly...the state government fund NAMA is going to announce the "price" i.e discount by which it will take over the "bad loans" of the banks in ireland.. (http://tinyurl.com/n39j5w)

I am EXTREMELY bearish on Europe, its fiscal positioning and its willingness to deal with this crisis - it smells of: Lets buy some time (Obama style) and see if this does not go away.. meanwhile the ordinary people lose their jobs as seen in Non-farm today - but hey:
Things are good .. the data is improving...... joke.. utter joke....Maybe it is time to buy some gold coins, store some water, and canned food....the market, the politicians, my friends all want an easy ride out of this.. but as you learn as a speculator.. .there is no easy way out...only hard work - over and out from Dublin...

Article below courtesy of my partner Jesper Christiansen....

Safe trading and nice week-end

Steen
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

RBS Told Not to Call Subordinated Bonds After Bailout (Update1)
2009-09-04 08:55:32.64 GMT


(Adds analyst comment in fourth paragraph.)

By John Glover
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc,
the largest bank bailed out by the U.K., won’t call $1.6 billion
of subordinated bonds after regulators objected to using state
aid to pay holders of the lender’s lowest-rated securities.
The Financial Services Authority, the U.K.’s market
regulator, told RBS not to redeem early four series of bonds
after the European Commission stated Aug. 19 that banks
shouldn’t use government money to repay equity and subordinated
debt, the Edinburgh-based lender said in a statement today.
One of the four bonds, a 400 million-euro ($571 million)
undated 6.625 percent note, plunged 17 cents on the euro to 69.5
cents today, according to price data compiled by Bloomberg. RBS
is 70 percent owned by the U.K. government after receiving a 20
billion-pound ($33 billion) bailout last year and putting 325
billion pounds of assets into a state insurance program.
“The concern is other U.K. banks could be forced to follow
suit by the regulator,” credit analysts at BNP Paribas SA wrote
in a note to investors.
The Commission is taking a tougher stance on banks rescued
with government cash amid the deepest recession since World War
II. Northern Rock Plc, the first lender nationalized by the U.K.
in the credit crisis, said last month it would defer interest
payments on eight subordinated bonds with an aggregate face
value of about $2.74 billion.
The executive arm of the European Union already told
Bayerische Landesbank, Germany’s second-largest state-owned
lender, and Anglo Irish Bank Corp. to defer payments on
subordinated debt as a condition of getting government money.

State Aid Rules

Last month’s statement from the Commission “made it clear
that banks subject to restructuring under state-aid rules should
not use state aid to remunerate their own capital,” the FSA
said in an e-mail today. Calling the notes “would adversely
affect the ongoing state-aid discussions in relation to RBS,”
the London-based regulator said.
The cost of protecting RBS’s subordinated bonds using
credit-default swaps rose, with contracts climbing 19 basis
points to 321, according to CMA DataVision. Default swaps tied
to subordinated notes sold by Lloyds Banking Group Plc, whose
predecessors were bailed out by the U.K. in October, increased 9
basis points to 297, CMA prices showed.

‘Impacts All Financials’

RBS’s decision not to call the subordinated notes “clearly
impacts all financials where there is government involvement,
most obviously Lloyds,” said Marc Ostwald, a strategist at
Monument Securities Ltd. in London.
Lloyds is “working closely with” the U.K. “to
demonstrate to the European Commission that the group has a
strong plan to exit state aid,” London-based spokeswoman Leigh
Calder wrote in an e-mailed response to questions.
RBS said today that it won’t call the four notes at their
early redemption dates in October. Two of the bonds, with a
combined face value of 500 million euros, are so-called upper
Tier 2 notes, while the other two, totaling A$1 billion ($840
million), are more-senior lower Tier 2 notes, RBS said.
RBS was hurt after taking over Amsterdam-based ABN Amro
Holding NV, which left it saddled with bad debts and depleted
cash reserves, leading to the biggest-ever loss
reported by a U.K. company. RBS stock rose 2.6 percent to 56.45
pence in London today.
Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange
for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a
company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point on
a contract protecting 10 million euros of debt from default for
five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year.

For Related News and Information:
Top bond stories: TOPH
Top Finance news: TOPFIN
For RBS bond stories: RBS LN TCNI BON
Credit crunch news: NI CRUNCH

--With assistance from Michael Shanahan, Andrew Macaskill and
Tony Aarons in London. Editors: Paul Armstrong, Michael Shanahan

To contact the reporter on this story:
John Glover in London at +44-20-7073-3563 or
johnglover@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Paul Armstrong at +44-20-7330-7185 or
Parmstrong10@bloomberg.net

torsdag den 3. september 2009

Ireland, a two speed Europe and October 2nd new EVENT risk day




I will not claim to be an expert on Ireland...more so on EU ... but as macro manager the October 2nd Irish Lisbon Referendum has EVENT RISK written all over it..

I have in my primitive way tried to do a few links which could help out forbackground (Bottom of the blog)

Market risk:

  • EUR currency risk clearly,
  • Government Fixed Income spreads could expand & CDS the sam
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Presently travelling in Ireland - and I found to my own surprise that the upcoming poll (October 2nd) on the Lisbon II agreement is in serious danger of being derailed despite ALL of the special deals done by the EU to get this through...

Below there is series of links with the last one - the new website by Irish Times being the most up to date... the issue here:

IF ---- Ireland votes NO again Europe is effectively in a position where it needs to move to a two speed set-up, as the Lisbon agreement is ratification of serious of changes... among them EU President ....

A two speed Europe.. is one step closer to... my ultimate call of a Europe being broken up... although thisi s 20 years from now.. ---- DO NOT forget that even the most simple monetary unions in history ultimately ALWAY breaks up as the economic headwinds comes in....

but.. it also a serious blow to a more competitite Europe etc..

This is NOT yet on anyone radar - to be honest it was not on mine,
before coming to Ireland yesterday...

Otherwise:

Took profit on most positions on the lows yesterday... but now in the process of reselling...GBPUSD, S&P, DAX, and buying fixed income... yday was 90% down day, so either we get strong Friday rebound or there is imminent test of 980 critical support coming....

Safe trading,

Steen


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0903/1224253745004.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon

http://www.ireland.com/home/Latest_opinion_poll_shows_FF_support_record_low/maxi/fast/news/irnews/237610

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/lisbon-poll-reveals-growing-optimism-on-economic-crisis-1873250.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/lisbon2009/

tirsdag den 1. september 2009

Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana. Groucho Marx (1890 - 1977)

Well it's now September...and market is busy trying to figure out which is more important:

The negative falling Chinese market (down more than 20% from peak...Chart: http://tinyurl.com/n784hw Hang Seng divergence vs. S&P ...

or the rising FEEL-GOOD-FACTORS as seen in the economic data....

Now let's start with the "improving data" :

First, data is late, very late relative to the decision making of a macro speculator - so late that they are largely uninteresting, this does not mean there is not people and investors looking over each and every data point - but let's face it: if you inflate an economy with TRILLIONS of US dollars the data will improve - the surprise is to some extent that they are not even better - the fact sentiment indicators now shows the economy is out of recession, is...at best useless - at worst confusing.

Bank lending and housing market is still falling, yes the fall is slowing, but there is NO CAPITAL incentive to neither increase balance sheet of the banks or.....for the home buyers to increase their bids - even 1-timers tax credit is hard sell, and when the first level of sales is done, the banks have plenty of homes on their books to sell.... please do NOT let yourself get carried away with this nonsense.

The sentiment data is now the most bullish in years..... my friends, neighbours and their dogs are all telling me how much money they are making in the markets (you seem to have forgotten the fact they lost 70% last year...but short-term memories are good for "investors"....)

Check this blog on the very issue: HTTP://www.tradersnarrative.com/will-september-kill-the-rally-2912.html

I can't say we are printing money, but somehow we are keeping an even keel in this market, waiting, waiting and waiting for some final direction to play out.........The fixed income market is stubbornly bid - and lately we have noticed FI carries more weight than other markets... we also

note how Crude is leading forex/equity: HTTP://twitpic.com/fz41k/full

The commitment is relatively low, but here is the present positioning:

Short S&P, Short DAX, short shipping, short Norway Index... - all with medium conviction. Entry levels relatively ok - leaving room for......stop loss --- Stop Loss.. two closings above high..

Short GBP/USD - short since 1.65ish - target 1.35/1.40 minimum - The UK is falling out of bed - as confirmed by PMI today..... also long DXY (US Dollar index)

Commodities: Short Crude since 64ish....

Fixed income: Long 90% of cash in short-term Danish Government bonds and small long Bunds...

August performance was small down......The Puma Macro and other funds will launch later this month with daily pricing...

Safe trading,

Steen





torsdag den 27. august 2009

Puma Modus Signal

Finally, as promised will we get started on mechanical benchmark model to follow relatively to our own Macro Discretionary fund: Puma Macro. We have called it Puma Modus for now..

The model takes top-down technical view and measures trends, divergence and reveralsals via mean-reversion process.....

Puma Modus present positions would be:

Foreign Exchange

Short GBP.USD (strong trend - but late in the cycle as Bollinger low @ 1.6137 begs)....Short since Aug-12th @ 1.6520. Stop: Close yday plus 1 ATR = 1,6205+0,0183= 1,4394

Short USD.JPY (strong trend - Bollinger @ 93.15)... short since Aug-17 @ 95,24. Stop: Close plus 1 ATR: 93,74 + 1,12 = 94,86

Fixed Income

Long Bunds (Strong trend - late cycle - Bollinger resistance @ 123,26).....Long since Aug-17th @ 121.45 - Stop: Close minus 1 ATR = 122,80 - 0,72 = 122,08

Long T-bonds ...... long since August 14th @ 119 5/32...Stop: Close - 1 ATR = 118.00 - 1.50 = 116 16/32

Commodities

Short Coffee....Short since Aug-19th @ 128.50... Stop: Close + 1 ATR = 124,50 +3,55 = 128,05

Equity

Long KFX (Danish stock market) ...Long Since July 17th @ 293,00 . Stop: Close - 1 ATR = 337,40 - 6,00 = 331,40

Long Dow...Long Since July 15th @ 8600.. Stop: Close - 1 ATR = 9546 - 151 = 9.395

Long FTSE..Long since July 15th @ 4.300.. Stop: close - 1 ATR = 4.892 - 82 = 481

This is indication only and not recommendation............We will make the signals life going forward but todays blog merely to illustrate what a "Benchmark" portfolio would look like... .as soon as model gets NEXT signal we will initiate and track it live...

The Puma Modus clearly respect and have been respecting the strength of the equity markets - presently the warning signal being that all equity markets are trading up against or above their "mean-reversion" high, plus there is several cases of divergence. A macro fund would take some profit or convert to long Calls, but is mechanical model - it understand nothing, it pretends nothing.... ;-)

Otherwise some chart to think about:

Safe trading,


Steen

onsdag den 26. august 2009

The answer my friend is blowing in the wind...

This market only does one thing: it drives you bonkers - there is presently classic war between the signals for this being intermediate top:

  • Divergence in S&P again (new price high - lower RSI high)
  • Break down in Crude prices confirming "priced-in hike in demand"
  • Falling freight rates.....
  • GBP - cyclical currency under attack....
  • Fixed Income - our favorite play still bid.... despite S&P now 50 figures higher (reflection of loose short-term rates and nowhere to place them...)
  • Lot of the buy-and-be-happy programs running out of either money or political will to be renewed...

....and that this could be for "real"... i.e S&P towards 1050-00 then 1125-00:

  • US index having hard time confirming strength
  • AUD - the Asian sentiment indicator refusing to go down - for now...
  • S&P hanging in there by end of day - every single night...
  • VIX still low (although note how ATR (Average True Range) is going higher...!!
  • Incoming data has been good, will remain good...

For now we remain with very small positions (except in FI):

Foreign exchange:

Short GBP.USD since 1.65ish on lowest STIR rates around , a MPC which is very bearish......

Long US index --- from just below here... Do not trade EURUSD no more - waste of time....

Note how US index could confirm strength today on close:

Equity:

Still short small S&P - close below 1020-00 would confirm top in place - a close above today should theoretically confirm UPTREND... so decisive day today...

Fixed income:

Long Danish Govies - budget deficit to expand, but low rates is part of equation - Denmark remains one of the most leveraged economies around and we will have low rates well in to 2011 if not 2012.......

Commodities:

Short Crude for the past week - sold small gold this p.m.....

Overall - not really exciting- some signs of cyclical top in place, but rest assure the "plunge-teams" will be in tomorrow should we go down.

The main scenario remains one of: Some downside in September, then Q4 should be ok ...

Safe trading,

Steen