Sunday night quarterbacking...

I'm sitting here a Sunday night watching the Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriot, so what is more relevant than some Sunday night quarterbacking:

Let me offer some direct thought on these markets - no apologies - only the gut-feeling - and let me stress that I'm a simple speculator with no predictive powers, but for now it seems the stars are lining up for further correction....

There is, as always, a big risk of ...bottom fishing tomorrow, and there may too much "consensus" on downside... but on the other hand... if we came down from Mars today - looked at correlations, the incoming data, vix, technincal levels, yields, .... .we wud probably objectively get a little concerned...

This could be time to forget the ........narrow trading ranges, the scalping move towards as a bare minimum to buy some volatility...

I "like" when several indicators points to the same conclusion - and I must say the additional "index" analysis I enclosed(see below in this blog) .. on the "end of recession" in my, obviously biased assumption, concludes that.... the "perception" of the new reality is much better/higher than the reality... which also confirms why unemployment keeps rising - why Obama is having political problems, why geopolitics is finally back in the frame (note: We have not discussed geo-risk for more than 18 mth!!!!)....).........

Also the rhetoric has changed.. there is a certain amount of complacency among policy makers - they feel vindicated - succesfull.....

My simple assumption remains... 60% chance of top in place - if this week is net down week, I think its time to add some chips to the table.. but there is long week ahead of us.... but...... the negative compounding is back biting at the bulls......and as long as water does not run up walls. there is a certain logic to the honeymoon of Obama, the stock markets, and the feel good factor being over...

A few charts: Break down in yield is NEGATIVE says John Murphy: http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.a/6a0105370026df970c0120a5bb206c970b-pi

Volatility have seen a low..: http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.a/6a0105370026df970c0120a6124c50970c-pi

And finally.. .some "quant" analysis of the actual economy - as a anti-dote to the CNBC sensational driven data analysis:
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ads_long.pdf

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ads_2000.pdf

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/ads_compare.pdf

Definition and background:
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-aruoba-diebold-scotti-index-the-sp-500-3059.html

Strikes me as super interesting..

Night and safe trading,

Steen