If two men agree on everything, you may be sure that one of them is doing the thinking (Lyndon Johnson)

A quick Saturday blog from me: I have finally figuered out what Obama/Geithner/Bernanke modus operandi is based on: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon  or more dramatic: http://survive2012.com/

The only way to explain their actions and policies must be based on knowing its futile anyway!

I found the Mayan prophecy when reading a thriller and it struck me as the only sensible explanation for the comment/actions/policies enacted under what surprisingly to me now look an even more incompetent administration than that of W. Bush!

Another far more elegant commentator who is having a hard time not only with Geither et al, but also the never ending praise of China is Hugh Hendry: http://scribd.com/doc/22520780

His latest monthly report is so well written had there been a Nobel Price for financial market commentaries he surely would have won it for 2009 - unless obviously Obama runs away with it as he has once considered writing a commentary, which these days seems enough to win a Nobel price, but PLEASE READ IT. It is concise and raises several issues which I myself agree with:

• The non-demise of the US Dollar
• The non-believe in the Chinese miracle (where is the consumer for their production?)
• Deflation - double-dip

Last week was big range trading - there was some "noises" that the "too big to fail means to big to live" could see regulation next week as the lobbyist fails to make their voice heard: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az7AcisnxsCA&pos=6

It seems Dimon agrees (or playing the game?): http://wallstreetpit.com/12093-jamie-dimon-too-big-to-fail-must-be-excised-from-our-vocabulary

The charts for banks should cause some concern:



Meanwhie the good old Dow Theory still not decided whether to confirm Primary & Secondary Bull Market or to make divergence indicating top in place for now....:



On the markets I have increased LONG US dollar exposure - and added slightly to option downsides - the odds of "see no evil - hear no evil " long environment is rising ... Even the bears now embrace this line of thinking as Goldman Sachs and others are now proclaiming more incoming STIMULUS is coming with the Job Summit in December -

Intentions are good - action better (Steen Jakobsen)... It seems to me that the last Deficit Summit brought nothing - I expect Job Summit will bring... Nothing ... The Obama policies are the worst nightmare this world have seen - when the Chinese engine have filled the last few storage facilities with useless products no one wants to buy - the day of reckoning is in ........This is 1999 all over - no values, no metrics for fair-value.....maybe the Mayan Calander is right ? :-)

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

PS: I will be in London for most of next week, but will try to update... nice week-end...

When the fire breaks out the door will be to small for everyone to get out..

Dear Friends,

Above picture courtesy of my old friend: Ole Riis...

This is EXACTLY what I am talking about and today there is further evidence which needs to 'ADDED'

1. George Soros - like him or not he is the 'Champ' and probably the only person I ALWAYS listen to: http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/10/26/face-to-face-with-george-soros/


2. Bank of America breaking ALL support - this could be key.... http://www.freestockcharts.com/tweets/?chart=a3f16fa5-7e8d-4a38-a4e8-3168158165f5&refURL=http%3a%2f%2ffsc.bz%3a81%2f1NK


3. Dow Theory..continues.: http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$TRAN,$INDU

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

Red alert is warranted...

Now I will do something which very few in todays world dare to do: Offer an opinion - one which statistically has zero value - but one which I feel I must share with you - if nothing else because in investing it is better to be on the safe-side / taking profit than believing in this miracle.

I believe it was JP Morgan who said when asked: 'How did you become rich?" - 'I took my profit too early' - wise talk.

Two major issues:

Issue 1:

Dow Theory is trying to warn us and what surprises me is the lack of focus on this - my partner Jesper got his CNBC going all day and they keep talking about Microsoft beating expectations - no talk of guidance being lower - and ABSOLUTELY no talk on how Transport stocks are tanking - it does not get more ironic than this -as a few weeks back everyone talked about Warren Buffet's favourite economic indicator: Rail road freight - This market is UTTER JOKE - and if you did not yet watch the Frontline prgoram I linked yesterday then NOW IS TIME. The defense rest.

Dow & Dow Transport (click to enlarge)

Issue 2:

Cable(GBPUSD) volatility is a concern. This morning Cable made cycle high - and now leaving the office it has made a 'key-reversal' - traditionally an indication of weakness to come. I may be wrong, but as an experienced FX trader the up-down-up-down moves where speculators 'chase' momentum is sign we are going to see some major reversals soon. You be the judge:

GBPUSD Chart (Click to enlarge)

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen