torsdag den 3. september 2009

Ireland, a two speed Europe and October 2nd new EVENT risk day

I will not claim to be an expert on Ireland...more so on EU ... but as macro manager the October 2nd Irish Lisbon Referendum has EVENT RISK written all over it..

I have in my primitive way tried to do a few links which could help out forbackground (Bottom of the blog)

Market risk:

  • EUR currency risk clearly,
  • Government Fixed Income spreads could expand & CDS the sam

Presently travelling in Ireland - and I found to my own surprise that the upcoming poll (October 2nd) on the Lisbon II agreement is in serious danger of being derailed despite ALL of the special deals done by the EU to get this through...

Below there is series of links with the last one - the new website by Irish Times being the most up to date... the issue here:

IF ---- Ireland votes NO again Europe is effectively in a position where it needs to move to a two speed set-up, as the Lisbon agreement is ratification of serious of changes... among them EU President ....

A two speed Europe.. is one step closer to... my ultimate call of a Europe being broken up... although thisi s 20 years from now.. ---- DO NOT forget that even the most simple monetary unions in history ultimately ALWAY breaks up as the economic headwinds comes in....

but.. it also a serious blow to a more competitite Europe etc..

This is NOT yet on anyone radar - to be honest it was not on mine,
before coming to Ireland yesterday...


Took profit on most positions on the lows yesterday... but now in the process of reselling...GBPUSD, S&P, DAX, and buying fixed income... yday was 90% down day, so either we get strong Friday rebound or there is imminent test of 980 critical support coming....

Safe trading,


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