Seems the Americans finally feels hurt enough to start protesting....
The political headwinds of Obama seems to increase - haven't check the databases but this kind of rating can not be good for markets medium term!-
With the desperate Obama back from holiday(he increasingly looks more and more like a ONE-TERM President)....... this could one very interesting autumn.... looks to me like we could see more upside in September (past the G-20 in Pittsburgh which will follow up on the April text...)....before the topsometime in October with major volatility and trend reversals going on...
G-20 is all in on "talking markets back up). Read this status report on London G20 meeting ahead of this months.....(http://www.g20.org/
- Restore confidence, growth and job - ticked.... they feel its done
- Repair the financial system to restore spending - ticked - although Options ARM's and write downs still only 1 trl. US vs the IMF suggested 2.5 trl peak next year
- Strengthen financial regulations to rebuild trust - THIS IS NEW 1stpriority..... (note also Germany's new over this week-end: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/
4038e1fe-9f09-11de-8013-) 00144feabdc0.html?nclick_ check=1
- Fund and reform our intern. financial institution to overcome thiscrisis and prevent future ones.... blabla.
Now... with Options ARM recast ( look at the word it explains itself -something needs to re-classified (Please, please read this link...: http://www.realtytrac.com/
I have always thought and learned that MARKET TRENDS are dictated by POLICY CHANGES (always for the worse) .... so with Pittsburgh G-20 coming up, we are to be alert, flexible to where the next MEGA TREND comes from...
Personal feeling is that the DEMAND FUNCTION of resetting loans can ignite higher rates, that the Japanese talking about independent foreign policy from the US this week-end, could mean that we have come full circle:
This latest boom was based on the US consuming goods, and ASIA consuming BONDS to store the surplus - now we know the US consumer is gone, so why is rates still so low ?
Next move is to see Asian and Middle East selling bonds - it has
started as it can clearly be seen by the accelerating weak US Dollar
Finally, please read this excellent piece on my good friend Daniel Arbess of Perella Weinberg - a well deserved praise of him - not only a good trader but a perfect Gentleman...