fredag den 23. oktober 2009

Red alert is warranted...

Now I will do something which very few in todays world dare to do: Offer an opinion - one which statistically has zero value - but one which I feel I must share with you - if nothing else because in investing it is better to be on the safe-side / taking profit than believing in this miracle.

I believe it was JP Morgan who said when asked: 'How did you become rich?" - 'I took my profit too early' - wise talk.

Two major issues:

Issue 1:

Dow Theory is trying to warn us and what surprises me is the lack of focus on this - my partner Jesper got his CNBC going all day and they keep talking about Microsoft beating expectations - no talk of guidance being lower - and ABSOLUTELY no talk on how Transport stocks are tanking - it does not get more ironic than this -as a few weeks back everyone talked about Warren Buffet's favourite economic indicator: Rail road freight - This market is UTTER JOKE - and if you did not yet watch the Frontline prgoram I linked yesterday then NOW IS TIME. The defense rest.

Dow & Dow Transport (click to enlarge)

Issue 2:

Cable(GBPUSD) volatility is a concern. This morning Cable made cycle high - and now leaving the office it has made a 'key-reversal' - traditionally an indication of weakness to come. I may be wrong, but as an experienced FX trader the up-down-up-down moves where speculators 'chase' momentum is sign we are going to see some major reversals soon. You be the judge:

GBPUSD Chart (Click to enlarge)

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

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