The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have. Vince Lombardi

Investment meeting

Economics:

The incoming data has stabilised in velocity but the expected improvement is not coming. Yesterday "worse than expected".... Industrial Production, Empire State Index, and Net long-term TIC flows once again raises our alert to the lack of tracktion for what can only be described as the Mother-of-all-fiscal stimulus' in the US and abroad.

The same pattern emerges from Europe - and we are left wondering if the AMEX announcement of February deliquent loans rise to 5.3% is the first sign of the financial industry now having to pay the final price of this cycle, namely the loss on their private clients? Still to early to judge, but not imcompasing this final loss into the rallying financial sector stocks could be grave mistake.

Conclusion: Stabilised but economic data impact on overall market direction relatively benign.....

Technical levels:

Looking at our quick-and-dirty scan of the market: http://tinyurl.com/dhbbd9 ...It could seems the momentum if somewhat going out of the market (It could also merely be pre-FOMC and G-20 meeting profit taking....)...

We also note, if nothing else, that the VIX volatility has not follow through on the downside creating "Noise divergence", but it was also noted the VIX failed to rise significantly with the new low 666.00 ish - is this sign of VIX losing its "powers"?

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$VIX

The internal expected reference remains 805.00 ish ..... we opted for keeping the exposure in place awaiting the FOMC announcement tomorrow. (To QE or not to QE - that's the question)

In currency-land, as I touched yesterday we are at a cross road - taking out 1.3100 on London close would make me go flat again, untill then I remain with 1.2000 target, although the Investment Committee at at large was more "open" to downside of the US Dollar.

The month-end effect should not be ignored... where the "benchmarkers" generally needs to buy US Dollar, but the end game of "competitive devaluation of the US Dollar" has in many peoples mind moved forward in particular if the FOMC tomorrow openly embrace the QE or more correct to launch the biggest helicopter in their fleet and start printing money in earnest, which QE end of is and always will be.

Conclusion:

Disappointment with the lack of EMG follow considering the "positive IMF noise".... EURUSD @ 1.3100 on close the key reversal point, Scandies looks good, but firm close below 10.90 EURSEK and USDSEK below 8.5000 would help.....

Macro themes

• G-20: Not much to add- the hope factor is high, and I remind myself it is not what they say they will do, but what they ACTUALLY do do which is important. Many fortunes has been lost on promises delivered by policy makers.


• China: We note China market was down while rest of G-20 was up, and now overnight it was up while G-20 was down? Coincidence? Probably - what I am hearing from China is surprisingly that the Politburo uses the stock market as GAUGE for their policies.. and once again... as domestic chinese investors you are offered two products: 1. Saving in state owned banks with NEGATIVE REAL RATES of 3-5% OR....2. play the markets? Which one will you chose?


• Quantative Easing in the US and ECB(FOMC meeting)..... Our FI manager had strong feeling for potential for ECB lead qualitative-easing (note the difference)... i.e buying of selective papers which is deemed too cheap - an analogy to off-the-runs in the US..... This could very well happen, although from DOGMATIC POLICY point of views it will be hard for BUBA to swallow... the argument certainly both qualified and correct for risk purposes... Why buy Corp Credit at 5.00-7.00% when you can get Ireland, Greece et al at LIBOR +400 ? At least these countries can TAX themselves out of trouble not so for corporates... so really we are saying is that SOVEREIGN offer better value than both corporate spreads and short-term equities (We agreed QE impact on stocks depended more on the mood of the day than a rational reaction, although creating more debt should mean widening credit-spreads, CDS-levels, and weaker US Dollar). Ultimately whether they move to QE or similar drastic action tomorrow (as insiders indicate)....is at best a guess at worst a hope...


• EEC. IMF is coming - and if so, market feels vindicated to thinking Eastern Europe is saved, maybe, just maybe the truth is a little more complexed...but watch the IMF development closely...

Conclusion: We deemed doing anything before FOMC would be too risky, but also agreed on contigency plans for should FOMC come out and play ball with the hopers - then some serious rebalancing could be in order....for now its awaiting more inteligence but watching several key indicators break or fail.

Strategy:

We remain very conservative with cash/fixed income representing approx. 55-60% of exposure, we have some direct- and indirect exposure in equity.....for our benchmark we have moved slightly out of risk aversion, but by small steps - transperency a need.....

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

Idealism is what precedes experience; cynicism is what follows.

Dear Investor,

First week almost gone in the new job - lots of stuff to do among them I did long interview with Bloomberg John Dawson which explains my take right now, which for some would be surprisingly neutral: http://tinyurl.com/cl574h

Safe trading,

Steen

If in doubt tell the truth - Mark Twain

BoA now more owned by Government than private shareholders - what is wrong in the State of Boa? http://tinyurl.com/9mvknv

Doesn't the American tax payer have the right to know where the money goes? Apperently not according to Fed! This is scary....scary... please spend six minutes on this: http://tinyurl.com/ytn8ru

C - as in Citigroup begins to look, smell and feel like LEH did - an arrogant management, a business model which has never worked, a board full of incompetence - and now they release their numbers today - look at the chart---- http://tinyurl.com/693pla

(Click on chart for larger version)

My friend Jesper Christiansen (http://mrtitrading.blogspot.com/) and I spend some time this morning over coffee trying for once to be constructive - at least on the crisis ;-)...

Let us put the overall economy and investment cycle into a perspective:

(Click on chart for larger version)




We are in the "Winter" mode of the Kondradratiev cycle(http://tinyurl.com/2xxsj2)

You know I am no believer in any specific model, but this model shows a few key things:

1. Where we are in the business cycle
2. How we will find bottom in economy
3. The impact on policies

We are moving into: plant closings, unemployment, debt defaults, beggar thy neighbor, competitive devaluations - in other words:

The "fundamental" problem for the world is that the consumer is INSOLVENT (there is no pend up demand with negative saving rates and a massive debt mountain to service) - to remedy this issue we need to see serious write-down of debt........making the debt mountain smaller.

How do we achieve this?

Firstly, the investors owning the debt needs to take a loss - there is a reason why they have been paid a high interest (yes, this includes the "articially safe havens" of mortgage bond as well) and hereby taking away the uncertainty which end of the day is probably the worst negative factor on every single decision big and small.

Secondly, the total debt burden needs to reduced - someone has to pay - and it should not be the future generations as every single "recovery plan" dictates right now

Thirdly, we need to stop Government & Policy makers from spending money on unproductive projects like keeping Detroit a live, paving roads, subsidising this and that - remember one US Dollar spend in public regime goes from one being spend in private.

Fourthly, the resolution to Detroit and similar problems is to make it go into Chap. 7 or 11 - then buy out the best most productive component reapply them somewhere else - guarantee mimimum social standards and then critically give 3-5 year tax reduction to start-ups, make funding capital available for new business, short-term subsidise redeployment of laid-off works... this way you support the actual tax payers directly through security, potential job growth...and not through roads, and keeping jobs which ultimately will disappear.

Evolutions dictates that "destruction of capital" will happen for us to see a new better world, rest assure I am VERY positive on long-term growth, employment and market returns, but first the world needs to own up to the fact we are in the "Winter phase" ... then we need to apply our IC, interlectual capital, to solve this crisis.

The beauty being the very reason we survive is our always positive outlook, and I am 100 pct certain if "people" & investors where told the REAL TRUTH, i.e. how bad things are - they would adjust accordingly and we would be out of this crisis very quickly, but unfortunately we need to take serious detour due to policy makers and politicians which must rank the most incompetent in history....

Strategy

We have restarted our negative equity market outlook by bying some out-the-money DAX puts on S&P equivalent rate of 850.00. I feel too nakes with no downside on, but this is small position and I stand by my overall view that into Obama Inaugaration market will be volatile both ways....

We are still short EURUSD - we saw 1.3020 low post ECB meeting - Trichet talks rubbish - as per usual, EUR rates is going to zero.. he knows, I know, and you should certainly know....

I am slightly concerned about fixed income (Europe) - Bunds - the high yesterday had both divergence and "spinning top" making for excellent risk reward selling here @ 125.90 with stop above high yesterday plus margin of error. (High: 126.53 - suggest stop 126.70)

Otherwise we are sticking to low exposure due to upcoming event risk...............

Safe trading,

Nice weekend



Steen

Hope is gone and fear is in....

Seems "fear" theme is back in fashion - Deutsche Bank(http://tinyurl.com/6vojqu) got the bulls nervous yesterday - and this morning I keep getting rumours of Boa and C getting "nationalised" this week-end (Listen: they are already de facto exactly that).... nice lead-up to Obama's Inaugaration next week.

ECB's Trichet - I have to laugh - he sits and it seems honestly says: Inflation will be rising again this year? Mr. Trichet - which planet are you from?

1. Greece, Spain and Portugal in such dire straits its getting their currency debt downgraded
2. Italy is mere days away from same....
3. Eastern European Pre-ins countries collapsing day-by-day (Take a look at banks with exposure to Baltic region ---- ouch!)
4. Export growth ...which was Asia only in the last three years - has collapsed --- China calls on growth all of the sudden in line with our Outragous predictions ttp://tinyurl.com/84mv7x
5. PMI leading indicators tells us unemployment will reach 10% minimum this year..

Keep it coming Trichet --- it will only make EURUSD go quicker to 0.9500.....!!!

I maintain very defensive stance - feels naked with no equity short exposure (S&P @ 820.00) - but promised myself that 910-00 could happen........only short EUR/USD from here......

I am doing a few speeches next few weeks.. if anyone want to have a look at it feel to download from here: http://drop.io/z8p0m5v# (password: tosser)

Watch this week-end - it feels like the week ahead of Lehman.....

Safe trading,

Steen

PS: A few people been asking to our Macro Performance so here goes:

2008: +700 bps

2009 YTD: + 250 bps

Monday morning quarterbacking...

We saw horrible 7.2% unemployment, and market thought it was better than expected! Tell that to the 525.000 who yet again lost their jobs last month, please!

Fact is and remains, every single month for a long, long time there will be net loss of jobs and the impact on our mood, consumption, sex life and other important stuff has not even started to be realised by the always happy Wall Street crowd.

Each morning I download on my Ipod with:NBC Nightly news http://tinyurl.com/4skdwu, PBS Nightreport http://tinyurl.com/76qgop, ABC, Bloomberg, CNBC etc business podcasts and listen to them in my car......and every single morning I get the same message: Stimulus will work, they(the idiots in Congress, Fed and White House) are doing the right thing, this is all or nothing, corporate balancesheets are solid, market will not go down, January effect etc etc. --- all of it based on H.O.P.E none of it based on sound fundamementals analysis, opportunity costs or even funding costs.

From the perspective of being a simple hedge fund manager I always have to look at opportunity cost - could I be placed differently, what are my competition making......and hence last week decreased our cash (to 75%) in order to go short the market - something we did hesitantly as we felt market strongly believes in Obama and his merry men.

Being the cynic I am: Tell me, if all this Obama Circus was going to be good why is the market then down YTD ? Why did we never ever have a Election rally? Obama is a salesman, and where I come from we do not like salespeople - they talk too much and they crowd-you-out in the B.S they think they need to sell you on......(often not even understanding what they are selling in the process.....)

Furthermore lets talk about his plan ! He wants to spend 700-1.000 bln. US Dollar (this is US tax payers money) on infrastructure, alternative energy- but where is the solution for Medicare and Social Security? Actuarians on Medicare (http://tinyurl.com/7d3lzz) said last week that they would run out of money inside seven years - and this was before all the "depressions" the good people of the US labor market will get over the next six month.

I hate to be negative, but in a world so full of hope, and little realisme I want to warn of the clear and present danger of misinterpreting government money with good money. This will NOT work - the state can not allocate efficiently, neither can they increase productivity or intellectual capital (a contradiction in terms for public sector)........

Tactically we, as you know, we went short last week - we maintain this - we did however today take profit in Gold @ 824.80 from short @ 854.00 - we took profit on our 125.00 calls ( 77 ticks) vs 25 paid - and we took off short EURCHF & EURJPY ---- we maintain very large exposure to both short stock market and long JPY and USD... vs. EUR..... in options (striked 89.00 and 1.2800)......

Going into ECB I think IMF's stern warning this morning (http://tinyurl.com/983aoz) plus S&P talk of Spain downgrade on currency debt talks for (http://tinyurl.com/8wjgxt) will mean:

1. Italy will be downgraded next
2. ECB to realise this is NO game and what is needed is serious moves on monetary policy ....... now is the time for Europe to forget they do not have common Treasury and come up with serious MONETARY EASING in the face of collapsing demand.....here, there and everywhere....
   
   Safe trading - I hope for sake of most people I am wrong...
   
   Steen

Once I make up my mind, I'm full of indecision. Oscar Lavant

Sorry dear readers been trying to start on this blog like 50 times this week alone, but I am "sucked" out of anything intelligent to say it in this January madness, but a few things:

• Tactical change in S&P 500. We came into this year as everyone else pretty bullish buying the Obama effect - being scared of all the money the US will spend et al, but our technical model indicated strong risk and hence we change the risk to NET SHORT S&P via 870 put in Feb @ 27 $ & net long 850 March @ 33 with spot reference 935-00.

Click on chart to get bigger version

• Tactical change in EUR/USD. Similar argument purely short-term on tech. picture with 1.3800 now top formation and stop loss level....and with massive improvement in terms of trade and EURO soon going into negative spin....I feel short EUR worth it while from here (@ 1.3710) .... short cash and long some 3week options EUR p)

My dominant "theme" is sceptisme to all the bullish interpretations being delivered to me from all sources - if Obama and his plan was this good why is S&P then unchanged on the first 5 days of trading ? Do we not pride ourselves of being ahead of the curve? Or rather ahead of the positive thinking?

Unemployment will play big this year - not as in tomorrrow numbers but it will main theme for: People losing their jobs, politicians, police (social unrest?), central bankers (who shouldt keep their jobs) and media. Market is still too complacent on where we go from here, but more on this tomorrow.......

A sick - yes this time for real Jakobsen signs off...

Steen

When in doubt tell the truth - Mark Twain

Now in Singapore after a long flight out of Europe - Had a nice dinner with very smart group of people in Singapore last night who made me, once again, realise why travelling is so important for a fund manager like myself.

The early take-away from my Asian experience:

1. Increasingly the focus of all Asians will be the north-south corridor of internal Asia rather than across corridors into the US & Europe - adjusting your investment outlook to this new world order is in my simple opinion the most important change one needs to make to understand - let alone make money in the next few years.

2. RMB faith. There is tremendous support/believe in China's ability to compete as currency in the international market. The concept being that the US ultimately will devalue themselves out of the trouble, this is what they have done in the past and this time it is no different - Europe meanwhile will put up more and more protectionist measures as highligthed by Mr. Dirigisme Sarkozy, who makes Karl Marx look like an amateur in the game of Socialisme. Asia accepts JPY will go stronger, but they prefer the RMB as storer of value through the next few years.

I respect this concept, but I have a hard time being a 'hard line Liberal' to accept ANY model which is based on 'economic planing' and allocation through central planning. I can't see China going it alone, but I think the above argument extremely valid and I am not one to argue based on my simplistic views of the world.

3. China will link periphael Asian currencies to the RMB. This to me is truely new idea, but again from 10.000 feet perspective it makes sense: China can use the present crisis to extend "guarantees" to Indonesia and other weak foreign reserves nations serving multiple purposes: access to their resources, building co-depence on China reserves, secure military export, and align China interest with that on the linking currency. Truely if done it will catapult China status and have geopolitical implications not presently priced in.

4. Appetite for corporate Asian credit. A favourite theme of mine, seems to have fans in Asia to - there is so much dislocation in short-term corporate bonds, that the upcoming refinancing will make for excellent plays which taken correctly could yield 15-35% p.a. There was NO APPETITE - and I mean zero, zilst, nada, ingenting, keine interest for Europe or the US - This is the first time I have seen Asia so 'local' in their investment outlook. Clearly a tell sign things are to change.

5. We all had positions we did not want. Around the table pretty much all of us, where in positions we did not like: The US Dollar, fixed income, short equities.

This tells me one of two things:

1. Either we need further erosion as we all take profit too early not truely acknowledging this is the 'right' trade despite our reservations.

2. There is room for major (suckers) rally as 'we' move into what we really like.... altough talking from personal experience I never seem to have any positions on I really like, the ones I understand normally losing me money, and the ones I do not believe in being the profitable ones.

Overall I am very keen on Asian stocks (versus short Europe) - I am, probably naively, starting to believe Japan could outperform.

• They have total savings in excess of all Sovereign Wealth Funds in the world
• The dividend yield on Nikkei is now higher than JGB's - why would you then buy Japanese Fixed Income?
• The premise of scarcity of capital makes the Japanese productio model appealing (think Toyota)

I hate travelling! Yes, hate is the correct word! However I am again totally humbled at how being on the ground explains so much more, and having the luxury of meeting people ten times smarter than myself and hearing them talk about the markets, makes me realise its all worth it - especially having been 'carried' to Asia on Singapore Airlines new 777-300 which makes travelling overnight as much of a pleasure as it can be: Check this: http://www.flatseats.com/Micro/index.htm

Strategy:

We are still long 75% cash, the 25% deployed in:

Negative Stoxx50, long jpy, short gold, short EURUSD & EURJPY. Small long TIPS, looking to buy selective Japan, SGD, utilities.

Finally, may I suggest you read my Singapore colleagues blog which is truely timely, wise and to the point: http://saxocapital.blogspot.com/

Safe trading,

Steen

The spread of evil is the sympton of a vacuum - Ayn Rand

The spread of evil is the symptom of a vacuum. whenever evil wins, it is only by default: by the moral failure of those who evade the fact that there can be no compromise on basic principles.
Ayn Rand (1905 - 1982), Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, 1966


(Click on chart to get bigger version)




I really should not be showing you this chart from my Chief Economist David Karsbøl - it shows how some trades have become so out of whack that there is great oppertunities in the market.

BAA - or Moody's BAA-rated bonds pays more than 500 bps over US Treasuries(I.e: Yield > 900 bps p.a) with defaults never higher than 4% ! The only issue being our negative equity bias, but this is one of the trades you need to put on.

We are working on making synthetic ETF ratio which can cover this one for more direct access - otherwise check out:

HYG: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p42658334577 or
LQD: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p42658334577


Another thing you need to watch is this word:
Dirigisme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirigisme)

Sarkozy has turned out to be more Socialist than any prior President - my friend Henri Foch send me this email today and unlike me, Henri is not person to get "carried away".....:
=============================================================
Europe is getting protectionist as the French President suggests creating a fund to nationalise key industries. He mentioned two reasons why to create this fund:

- To gains increasing influence on the economy in order to guide it.
- To avoid foreign investors buying European industries for the cheap

Sarkozy suggested that Europe could run a 'different monetary policy' without violating the independence of the ECB. In order to achieve this he plans introducing an economic council / government which ‘should discuss with the ECB’

After the comment, European shares declined, CEE and other EMK currencies have come under pressure. The quality of the comment is poor and super EUR bearish.
=============================================================

I am sure Sarkozy like Putin soon will be proclaiming: "There is NO CRISIS in France" its a conspiracy of the hedge funds, the Liberitarians and the Economists.... sure is ....

Why are "facts" are so oversold in todays market? Fear, greed, stupidity ? Mankind is supposed to learn from their experiences, that's why we "rule the earth" is it not -

I must say I am getting more and more depressed about the intellectual part of finance (How about that for a contradiction in terms!) - there is too much BETA around........ Beta must die --- Destruction of Capital as per Schumpeter must play out .

Strategy:

FX: We remain short our EURUSD based on:

• Technical 1.3260 was next line the sand. John Hardy, my chartist looks for 1.2700 - and he has been hot recently, so we move our 1.3000 target to 1.2700 minimum
• Fiscal stimulus in the US - Bernanke seems to want job with new administration as he "sanctioned" fiscal plan to the tune of 300 bln. USD in Congress yesterday (mind you getting Bernanke's blessing is the kiss of dead!)
• Europe deleveraging needs to run longer and deeper than the US.

We are looking to add short HUF & LVL vs. basket of CHF and USD

Fixed Income

As printed above - we like Corporate bonds from the "distance" - getting closer - looking to trigger.........

We like TIPS http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIP&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p42658334577

Bunds - we are long 116.00 calls for Friday - sold our cash today.

Commodities

We are short GOLD, mostly because I am enforcing the view on the team but in my metrics - fiscal deficits needs to be financed, why not sell something which does not work as inflation hedge, carries no value except illussion of storage - i.e gold reserves to finance the purchase on government bonds .. ?

Target: 700.00 still....

Equities

This is your Captain - we are flying in a straight line towards 765.00 - we do expect some turbulence along the way, so please remain seated at all times during the flight - Thank you for flying with us.

Cash: 85% still - Full Investment Meeting report tomorrow from me...

Finally, my friend, teammate and sparrings partner Jesper Christiansen have launched his own blog - although more "dark visioned" than me, he offers this from different angle than me - try his blog: http://mrtitrading.blogspot.com/

Safe Trading

Steen

Weekly Macro Meeting

The three PREMISES:

• Cost of funding for drives market and valuations
• Price of liquidity new unknown (tax on money)
• No prior analogy historically will work (because this is different, very different)
  

Conclusion:

Last week: We are seeing the financial effect now impacting the economic situation - making this the "worst part of the curve".

This week: We have moved into grey-zone between recession and depression ==> Bias on downside increasing

Allocation:
Last week: Watch the transitions period - we are clearly policy dependent. We maintain 85% cash = EXTREMELY DEFENSIVE

This week: We called the transition - although the Social democratic Nationalisation has created pressure in EEC and EMG countries as they stand outside the "circling of the wagons".

We maintain 85% cash - but up from intraweek 65% - as we need further information to make long-term call.

Keeping cash @ 85% is not only impossible in order to make excess return, it is also extremely punitive in general allocation theory, but this is not time for being brave, rather it is time to look for opportunities, so as negative as we are - we are looking to reduce our cash portion relative quickly should we get more transparency.

Targets:

S&P 500: Down to test our long-term minimum target of <765-00>

Fed funds: 0.50% by Q2 2009 /ECB: 1.50% by Q2 2009 /10y yield: 4.5-5.0% by Q2 2009 /2y yield: 1.00% by Q2 2009

Crude: 50-60 by Q1 2009 /Gold: 750 by Q1 2009 =========================================================

Economics

Bias: Negative growth & inflation

David Karsbøls economic forecasting model continue to fall indicating waning growth & inflation
Key leading indicators all point to lower growth

Fed 1 years forward expected rate is +26 bps - which we deem to be too high - We expect further cuts in Fed funds

EDCB 1 year forward expected is -121 bps - which we also deem to high - We expect minimum 250 bps cuts from ECB

Australia and any commodity country will decelerate the most - we are entering bust-cycle for commodities, which will hurt these countries

On the premise of "cost of capital", I.e savings we favour economic relative performance from: Switzerland, Singapore, China, & China - and underperformance from: UK, Scandinavia, Spain, Portugal, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand
=========================================================

FixedIncome

Bias: Neutral

Banks can not releverage their balance sheet meaning less demand for Government issuances
Central banks will need to buy their own government bonds as no one else will!!!!

High Yield is still struggling - Corporate leverage spreads widening - Financial tightening - 8 year Ford pay 27% yield

Danish Mortgages: Still under pressure - Lack of guarantee in mortgages makes for widening spreads plus weaker DKK currency

Still favour BUNDS over Treasuries

We will go long TIPS (ETF: TIP US ) - as breakeven has gone negative - indicating NO INFLATION expectations

=========================================================

Equity

Bias: Negative

Our team does not believe earning actual results to be major theme - although there are low expectations

The key driver in equity will be: Hedge Fund Redemption. There is talk of > 200 bln. US Dollar and most of it in November & December

Using our three premises sectors to be overweight are: Utilities & Telecom. Underweight's are: Energy sector and consumer cyclical

There is some silver lining in equities - looking at P/E based on trend earnings (I.e smoothed earnings) we are trading all BEAR MARKET LOWS: Presently 12,2x versus previous lows of 15.7x(2002), 14.2x(1990), and 13.7x(1987).

The issue being where the E in P/E should be priced...but in terms of medium- and long-term allocation we need to move into equities soon or we lose upside allocation potential

=========================================================

Commodities

Bias: Negative

Gold: The governments will need to sell out of their stocks plus if we should be buying Gold as inflation hedge, then with break-even turning negative, we should be selling Gold. We are net short GOLD through medium term Put bought.

Crude: Getting closer to "critical levels" for both producing countries and producing companies - 70 $ seems to have some budget rate implications - hence fall below could trigger two thins: 1.
Foreign Exchange

Bias: Neutral

US dollar: The US needs to fund themselves- there are two ways: 1. Much cheaper currency 2. Much higher yields - Second choice will not help the economy, hence must number one play - we are at turning point in this US Dollar strength, but we need further easing in US funding rates, and some better economic data to pull the trigger

JPY, CHF; Two best places to park your currency for now

EMG, EEC: Very very negative. The currencies is 100 pct correlated to their current account balances - with world slowing into recession/depression there will be more pain - unfortunately
Carry trading: Forget it!

=========================================================

OVERALL CONCLUSION

We fully realise keeping 85% in cash does not make you a lot of money, but with a performance of +400 bps YTD, and our benchmark down everything between 25% and 75% we simply do not feel this is the time to be brave.

We are more focused on finding long ideas in equity, corporate bonds and commodities than in continuing selling them down. We see and understand that in "normal times" this is cheap, but having premise number three: This is different, we have been able to navigate these troubled waters.

The Investment meeting was down right depressive for yours truly, who find himself the most "bullish" of all - but in respecting the framework and the lack of clarity we reassigned the extremely cautious weights to our portfolio.

For arguments sake let me tell you in "normal times" if we have no exposure we would to Beta exposure:

Equity: 35%
Fixed Income: 15%
Alternative Strategies: 20%
Private Equity: 20%
Real Estate: 10%
Cash: 0%

But clearly this is not a time like that.....

Have a nice week,
Med Venlig Hilsen Yours Sincerely Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer, Saxo Fund Management Saxo Bank A/S -London
40 Bank Street, 26th Floor Canary WharfLondon E14 5DA
Phone: +44 (0)207 151 2010 Fax: +44 (0)207 151 2001
Please visit our website at: http://www.saxobank.com/
Disclaimer
Trades in accordance with recommendations, especially in leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investments in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits. Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information contained in this email.
Please read our full disclaimer.

Too many people are thinking of security instead of opportunity. They seem more afraid of life than death.

Too many people are thinking of security instead of opportunity. They seem more afraid of life than death.
James F. Byrnes (1879 - 1972)


Dear Investors,

S&P from here 800 or 1200? (click chart to get larger version)

We are in period which mildy could be said to be "volatile", but we are getting towards the total panic needed in every crisis. I will not try to be brave or give any advice but I will give you my scenario for this tumultous time.

1. To stop this crisis the Government & Central Banks needs to get ahead of the curve not behind. This entails giving LARGER THAN exepected rate cuts, bigger than expected capital injections into banks - and redoing their communication policy - broadbased comments are not appreciate in a market market looking for laser-precise answers to the enigmas of the financial markets


2. Adding stocks to my personal account going from 99.5% cash to 50% cash-I have been - remains 85% in cash in my funds- and in the PA account I have been 99.5% long cash - I have this morning added a number of stocks onto the PA account -( pardon this being danish stocks but my private bank does not seem to have noticed there is equity markets outside Denmark) - but I added: Danske @ 88.00, Novo @ 263, Maersk B @ 34.500. I have NO PREDICTIVE POWERS - but really - if you like me, have been 100% cash for the last year you need to start allocating somewhere... I am starting now (For disclaiming purposes I also added Danske & Barclays to my hedge fund accounts...)


3. The outlook from here is a bifurcation: Either bounce to 1200-1300 or direct to sub-800......(check the chart)


4. Carnage is fully pricing collapse now - remember a while back I wrote about this mechanical fund who in their September newsletter proclaimed: "It is dangerous to be in the market, it is even more dangerous to not be in the market!" - I kid you not that fund is now down 70% for the year - so my point is: The last of the "remain invested jerks" are disappearing - the financials market equivalent of a clown sorry joke: Jim Cramer wants to sell all my stocks and go to cash! (He is ALWAYS wrong - only beaten by Greenspan, who is the best inverse indicator ever)


5. The policy reaction function is different in the US and Europe. One must acknowledge that Europe have greater power to do "UK like" baning bail-outs than the US - All options are open to Europe but due to the idiotic EMU construction it does lack European Treasury to co-ordinate anything - meaning it look and feels like piece-meal solutions, but at least they are not bounded by Congress. In the US Bernanke & Paulson are limited by needing broadbased political support - and we know how that works in the US --- or rather how that DOES NOT work - the US election cycle could... and I mean could mean we need to BUY EUROPE vs US - the trigger would be full fletched banking support in Europe which US can't copy ==> outflow from investors -- I am getting closer and closer to triggering UPSIDE EURUSD based on this.

Strategy

Despite being almost the parma bear on this- I simply can not be NET SHORT stocks any longer , so... I remain 85% long cash, but I am now using the 15% to buy UPSIDE STRATEGIES... on S&P, USDJPY and banking shares........

In our Weekly Investment meeting we came up with three "premises" which one needs to learn, respect and understand:

1. Cost of funding drives market & valuations (old fixed income theorem now moved into fx, equity and commodity)


2. Price of liquidity essential and REAL PRICE (tax on money)


3. No prior analogy historically will work (This is different, very different)

I will let Mark Twain end this blog: "I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money".

Good luck,

Steen

Where is the Market Going ?

(click on chart to enlarge!)

Monday, Monday, .......Midday update

Classic fund manager dilemma - although this is not like anything I have seen before in my career, I feel tempted to go square from short everything more on a gut feeling than anything else - and trust me gut feelings are overrated so I will stick to our key targets (see below)

Massive rate cuts are coming - maybe even before the open today or tomorrow open - The authorities thinks in steps:

1. Bail-out

2. Rate cuts

3. Direct intervention (in bonds and stocks)....

We did step 1.) now and step 2.) is coming if not working either - we will move to step 3.) which will be unprecedented in Europe & North America but not in Asia....

The reaction off rate cuts could be: 2 min.'s rally or a longer bounce based on cheaper funding - there may still be pockets of desperation but it will be cheaper.....

I maintain as per my blog Friday - merely refinancing/bailing-out mortgage portion of risk will only help temporarily - We know the banks are "misrepresenting" the trust, this morning papers full of how Lehman told the less than honest truth about their true need of capital.

Direction key determinator will be bond market, and probably Bunds... if we are going to see action 2.) and 3.) we need furhter flight to quality.

Statewide banking guarantees - well ,well, it will not work - when everybody does the "arbitrage" goes away, its against EU regulation, it increases financial long-term burden(more debt), Widens funding rates for governments(through higher bonds premium) and it floats capital market with bonds..... Ergo: back to square one... but it does mean banks can keep their depositors, it also ironically means there is LESS CHANCE of bail-out for next bank in trouble - as the customers are already safed, why safe the bank frame-work?

Short-selling ban will by "law" disappear three days after President sign bail-out into law - Will be interesting - my estimate it will increase liquidity and get volatility back down, plus obvisously take CDS spreads down, as they have been the short financial proxy of choice.

Strategy:

Cash 90% - now, +5%
Small long US dollars versus EUR
Was small short european stocks - but awaiting resolution on rates...
Long Dec - EDZ
Long CHF vs GBP options
Small, small upside option on stocks...

We are entering the acceleration part of this market, one which creates more losers than winners...........I am keeping my powder dry - awaiting better risk/reward.

Our KEY targets remains:

S&P 867-00 (Was 1100 untill early August)
EUR 1.3500 - almost reached, we move it down to 1.30000
Yield 10 yr - when the US dollar hoarding done we expect the final bubble of this cycle: low interest rates to start playing for real. We see LT rates in the US in 8-10% in 2009....
GOLD --- 1000 US Dollars
Crude- 80-100 for balance of this crisis, then 200 US Dollars next year.

Trade smaller size, be active, be prudent, listen not to what they say, but observe what they do....

Steen

Dear Reader, not much time, but Ambrose Pritchard, the highest "ranked" economic journalists in our universe writes it better than me... READ IT or you are lost...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3141428/Germany-takes-hot-seat-as-Europe-falls-into-the-abyss.html

From internal note:

Read this or you could be lost......

This is an excellent summary of the risk we face - note the very dire words chosen by experienced in-the-know journalists -

I believe the next few days is similar to the extreme volatility we saw before GBP devalued in 1992.... It could also, unfortunately, be similar to 1987

We in dying moment of a 10 trl. US dollar balance exercise which is costing many banks there livelihood, and we will see MAJOR RATE CUTS this week in our opinion......Germany, as per usual, is so behind the ball, with the loser Trichet, that it could cost Europe SEVERE RECESSION.......

We will keep u posted all day - remember morning meeting 845...on trading floor..
Steen

Germany takes hot seat as Europe falls into the abyss
We face extreme danger. Unless there is immediate intervention on every front by all the major powers acting in concert, we risk a disintegration of global finance within days. Nobody will be spared, unless they own gold bars.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 11:26PM BST 05 Oct 2009
Investors will learn today whether the Paulson bail-out - fattened to $850bn (£480bn) by Congress - can begin to halt the death spiral in the credit system. So far, the response looks terrible.
Germany is now in the hot seat. The collapse of a rescue deal for Hypo Real Estate on Saturday threatens a €400bn (£311bn) bankruptcy that nearly matches the Lehman Brothers debacle for sheer scale.
Chancellor Angela Merkel has been forced to pull her head out of the sand, guaranteeing all German savings, a day after she rebuked Ireland for doing much the same thing. Reality intrudes.
During the past week, we have tipped over the edge, into the middle of the abyss. Systemic collapse is in full train. The Netherlands has just rushed through a second, more sweeping nationalisation of Fortis.
Ireland and Greece have had to rescue all their banks. Iceland is facing an Argentine denouement.
The US commercial paper market is closed. It shrank $95bn last week, and has lost $208bn in three weeks. The interbank lending market has seized up. There are almost no bids. It is a ghost market. Healthy companies cannot roll over debt. Some will have to sack staff today to stave off default.
As the unflappable Warren Buffett puts it, the credit freeze is "sucking blood" out of the economy. "In my adult lifetime, I don't think I've ever seen people as fearful," he said.
We are fast approaching the point of no return. The only way out of this calamitous descent is "shock and awe" on a global scale, and even that may not be enough.
Drastic rate cuts would be a good start. Central bankers still paralysed by a misplaced fear of inflation – whether in Europe, Britain, or the US – have become a public menace and should be held to severe account by our democracies. The imminent and massive danger is now self-feeding debt deflation.
The lesson of the 1930s is that any country trying to reflate in isolation will be punished. The crisis will ricochet from one economy to another until every one is crippled. We are seeing it play again in this drama as our leaders fail to rise above their narrow, parochial agendas.
The European Central Bank – which raised rates into the teeth of the crisis in July – has played a shockingly destructive role in this enveloping slump. Its growth predictions this year have been, and still are, delusional. Neglecting its global role, it has vastly complicated the fire-fighting efforts of Washington.
It could have offered "cover" to the US Federal Reserve this spring when Ben Bernanke was forced by events to slash rates to 2pc. It could at least have signalled an end to monetary tightening. That is how an ally ought to behave.
Instead, it stuck maniacally to its Gothic script, with equally unhappy consequences for both sides of the Atlantic, as well as for China, Japan, and India. The euro rocketed yet further, which it turn set off an oil shock as crude metamorphosed into an anti-dollar with leverage.
The ECB policy was self-defeating, even on its own terms. It merely drove headline inflation even higher, while deeper forces of underlying debt deflation pulled the real economies of Germany, Italy, France, and Spain into a recessionary vortex.
Far from offering reassurance, the weekend mini-summit of EU leaders served only to highlight that nobody is in charge of this runaway train. There is still no lender of last resort in euroland. The £12bn stimulus package is risible.
Angela Merkel has revealed her deep limitations. It was she who vetoed French efforts to launch a pan-EU rescue package, suspecting that any lifeboat fund would prove to be Trojan Horse – a way of co-opting German taxpayers into colossal transfers of wealth to Latin Europe.
In that she is right, but it is too late now for dysfunctional EU political games. By demanding that those who caused the damage should pay for it, she crossed the line into caricature, or worse.
Her comments echo word for word the "we're alright Jack" attitudes of Euro-pols during the first US banking crises in 1930-1931, until the storm hit Europe and the entire cast was swept away by furious electorates, or simply shot. Thankfully, this EU stupidity is at last drawing serious criticism.
"We have to make sure Europe takes its responsibilities, like the US:
action must be taken quickly and in a concerted manner," said IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
As for the US itself, it has not yet exhausted its policy arsenal. It can escalate further up the nuclear ladder. The Fed can cut interest rates from 2pc to zero. If that fails, it can let rip with the mass purchase of US debt.
"The US government has a technology, called a printing press," said Fed chief Ben Bernanke in November 2002. (His helicopter speech).
In extremis, the Treasury/Fed can swoop into any market to shore up asset prices. They can buy Florida property. They can even buy SUV guzzlers from the car lots in Detroit, and mangle them in scrap yards.
As Bernanke put it, the Fed can "expand the menu of assets that it buys."
There is a devilish catch to this ploy, of course. It assumes that foreign creditors will tolerate such action.
Japan entered its Lost Decade as the world's top creditor, with a vast pool of household savings to cushion the slump. America starts its purge with net external liabilities of $3 trillion, and a savings rate near zero. Foreigners own over half the US Treasury debt, and two thirds of all Fannie, Freddie, and other US agency bonds.
But the risk of a dollar collapse is one for the distant future. Right now the world faces the opposite problem. There is a wild scramble for dollars as a $10 trillion pyramid of global lending based on dollar balance sheets "delevers" with a vengeance.
This is a "short squeeze" on those who have used the dollar for a vast global carry trade. International banks are facing margin calls on their dollar leverage. It is why the Fed is having to provide $1.25 trillion in dollar liquidity for the entire global system, according to estimates by Brad Setser from the Center for Geoeconomic Studies.
The crisis engulfing Europe, Asia and emerging markets, makes life easier for Washington. The United States is becoming a safe-haven again.
The Fed can now hope to pursue monetary stimulus "a l'outrance"
without being slapped down by the currency, debt, and commodity markets. Take comfort where you can.

The Chinese use two brush strokes to write the word 'crisis

The Chinese use two brush strokes to write the word 'crisis.' One brush stroke stands for danger; the other for opportunity. In a crisis, be aware of the danger - but recognize the opportunity. John F. Kennedy




This morning CRISIS version 1.0 hit european newspapers and media - for the first time every single media got SPECIAL EDITION on the crisis -
I find that somewhat positive as they so far have been talking about this AS IF... the crisis comes...

Second observation; what u dont die from you get stronger from?

The fact the market didnt total collapse this am in europe is good sign, same as asia... is there temp. lows in S&P in ?

Clearly the big losers are Paulson, Bush, and Washington, but cud the winner be "capitalisme" and the markets... ? I think so.. the plan would have been disaster.....


Other news:

• Ireland guarantees ALL bank deposits - wow, thats interesting.....
• Danish Nationalbank except all forms of collateral including old bicycles(i.e: non-traded stocks)
• O/N USD rates in 8-10% as we have turn money (September into October) - showing not enough collateral in the system for some of the banks.....
• This will be one of the worst month on record for hedge funds - we expect redemptions to exceed 10% of AUM at least , i.e more than 200 bln. US Dollars....

Strategy

We are trying to defend an excellent month by taking very small risk into the month-end - our primary focus has been stocks this month, next chapter in this story could very well the major move in the US dollar. Which way? Still unclear, the path of least resistance should be weaker US dollar based on their extreme need for funding from overseas, but for now it seems there is considerable repatriation going on from US based investors away from EMG back into the US, but to me this is merely matter of time, but tide is turning.

The issue as my good friend Lars keeps pointing out; the EUR is major disaster in every aspect, economically, cyclically, and policy-wise. Trichet will once again be forced to move away from his dogmatic views and into the REAL WORLD, as the Eruopean banks are collapsing one-by-one.

Left? CHF and JPY, I guess, if anyone can tell me what the Japanese investors will do the next three month, having savings exceeeding ALL THE SWF-funds in the world, I will tell you where the JPY (and US dollar goes)... keep me posted.

Moving into Q4 we could have potential for big positive return if the policy makers can stay away......Mind you the starting is low - the real deal though will be whether or not the REAL NEEDY, the US consumer with mortgages gets help or not - with the failure of the deal yesterday we are one step closer to proper solution - maybe?

Positions

Small long S&P from this morning, short T-bonds, long front-end US rates, long CHF vs GBP & EUR...

Good luck, and be safe

The ability to delude yourself may be an important survival tool - Jane Wagner

As the title suggest either I am totally wrong, which is utterly likely or "the market" need serious dose of reality or maybe is this about how asynchronous the world markets are right now.

First day back in the job and the headlines deems more trouble ahead:

1. WTO break down for real. This is serious blow to globalisation and add to the ever present theme of how globalisation has gone into reverse gear - as transportation costs have taken more than 50% of some products price. (leading ultimately to local production - like steel is now cheaper to produce for US market in the US relative to China)
2. Fed extend TAF facility
3. SEC extends no short on US financials
4. State of New York going towards bankruptcy http://www.nypost.com/seven/07302008/news/regionalnews/crisis_puts_ny_in_sell_hell_122211.htm
5. Australia worse of than the US http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/30/cnoz130.xml

In other words the game continues - I am surprised, and yet not, that foreign exchange volatility so low - 1 month EUR volatility atm <>

I find most people I talk have turned bullish the US dollar - the cyclical aspect in place - I am getting tonse of reasons why the US dollar should have turned prime among themStephen Jen of MS who writes elegantly yet does he have magic wane?

His arguments goes:(my summary)

1. ECB done hiking rates
2. Fed funds bottom of cycle
3. Oil and US dollar - arguing stronger US dollar and lower oil will benefit all countries - hence work
4. USD vs Asia already moved significantly
5. Failure of GSCE crisis to take EURUSD above 1.6000 seen as weakness

Its all well argued but as per usual I disagree, not that anyone cares!

I find a more compelling argument for relatively stronger US dollar in the weak EMG currencies, the first moves is ALWAYS into US dollar first before finding a new harbour - I am still of the opinion that this was normalisation of EMG risk which made for strong US Dollar short-term, next comes the move into JPY and EUR again.

Secondly, it seems the overseas part of the US investors base is getting cut back - to more normal levels, which also favors US dollars.

On the rate front though; there is no doubt in my mind; The US likely to ease before hiking and the ECB likely to hike before easing - both will ease in the end, but the US is going from bad to worse the numbers will prove this in the next 2Q - and where I before saw 2008 as worst part of this crisis I now fell we need to move into 2009 to see full impact on the micro level on the economies.

I also note the rallies happens on low volume while drops happens to big volumes, it is likely this is all a song-and-a-dance before the market goes into holiday mood?

Note also reliable good friend of mine sees strong t-bonds into month-end. He has been in the past -

Strategy

Need more overview having been off; feel compelled to add EUR calls vs US Dollar, to remain long December EURO calls in rates, to looks for buyign crude, shorted AUDJPY on above story plus major moves in STIR rates.

The world has become smaller again - all talk of decoupling should stop and soon, the sooner the worlds owns up to this RECESSION the better - what we need is for economic agents to change behavour not to pretend this is NOT happening. More tomorow. Happy to be back - I apologies for being all over the place just getting my thought straight here.

Steen

Inflation jumping castle - and what to do

Message in a bottle, message in a bottle - The Police

I most humbly apologies for not updating as stated, but let me explain my overall issues right now:
1. On one hand I think the biggest mispricing right now is the decoupling story. How Europe is not going to be hurt by the US cold. That's simply naive both academically but also based on history. The market has increased the probabilities of ECB cuts despite the Trichet talk. Right now market is pricing 65 bps (based on swap spreads). The European rate adjustment downwards has been a quick and steep as the US.

If this is your main driver for theme, then the logic would be to be long short end Europe, short European growth companies and certainly short banking/real estate........ This is my prime focus right now. Point being: The world is dissecting bad US news as their life depended on it, meanwhile the European data continues to deteriorate.

2. Long or short fixed income overall? The base argument, and my belief, that the credit crisis is bigger than market perceive it to be (more on this later) should make we want to be long and stay long fixed income across the curve.

The fact the banking industry can not leverage their balance sheet will make the central banks go even deeper than needed (and setting off inflation alarms!)........

On the other hand can I ignore monetary data, inflation core and gross, high gold prices, high commodity prices overall? Hardly, the day-to-day inflation is through the roof and works as direct tax on the consumers. The US been early in giving tax hands-out, but the fact is the 500 $ disappear into higher energy, food and loan payments.

We may be, as stated by George Soros, at the end of massive credit cycle, and getting ready for a wash-out. A wash-out which will be hugely positive. Imagine if the banks started allocating capital at highest marginal utility and not to highest greed factor!!!!!!!!

I have 100s of other issues on top of the two above, but seeking the answer to the equation makes me sway from bull to bear, and back. A situation I am increasingly getting feeling I share with even the super minds of this industry.

Why is it so important?

When fund managers like myself try to map out the world we like logic, mostly linear outcomes, what the world is giving us right now is a complex matrix of potential answers. The root of the problem not really the complexity of the problem, but more the dynamics of it.

Normally, as in since 1982, the central banks have applied more drugs for the sick patient - but has the patient become immune to this medicine by now?

Does the lack of banking edibility create bigger issues? The answer here is yes, the central banks (despite their short comings) have learned from the 1920s-1930s where policies were the reason for the crash. However, to me this begins to look a lot like the 1970s, where the central banks, main Fed, was to expansive fuelling inflation..........

1970s was about big business, big government, and if today's Sovereign Wealth Fund are not big government, I don't know what is. The Bush administration have made gigantic hole in the coffers to spend on wars....also big government. Inflation is REAL TERMS is rising, faster and faster... food prices is at all time high, and only going higher due to demographics, growth and eating habits....

So to cut a long story short, I am slowly, and as always step by step getting to the end conclusion that this time its different, it really is. It is at the end of a Super Credit Cycle, and should the Mononlines become downgraded before the rescue package is in place, then the banks will roll over and put aside an additional 50-100 bln. USD of risk.


Strategy:

Moving from day by day, to week by week now, main themes:


FX: Strong believer in cyclical US strength coming shortly - the US export alone will add 1.5% to growth in the US this year, and with Europe catching some of the US cold, the relative performance of the two currencies EUR and USD should line up better.

The bottom line on EURUSD is as follows: A EURO above 1.5000 for 1 or 2 years is equal to closing EUROPE.

FI: Going into Fed meeting with Puts on T-bonds. Market will probably see this as reflation...

EQUITY: Long some out of money CALLS for the sake risk diversification.

Commodities: Flat.

Running very flat book overall... as I make my next move.

So if you got strong ideas, please... send me a message in a bottle..


Good luck tonight.

Steen

Central bankers are lost... totally lost....AGAIN..

My "models" are very close to confirming a BEAR MARKET. No less, no more. The key final ingredients will be Bernanke's speech tonight - if the market, as it has done in the past, sell of during and after his finish, we will have first real bear market since 2000.

The only thing that will be able to help this market out is rumors. Rumors of Sovereign Wealth Funds (One wonders why considering their track record so far!!!), and inter-meeting rumors of cuts.

Having said all thay I am still in NEUTRAL mode - there is to much consensus in the market, which concerns me always. No less after having read the F.T piece about Ray Dalio of Bridgewater: http://tinyurl.com/3dgapx - he made it his business to NEVER correlate with other managers, something I have always done, but to much less success than Bridgewater!

Strategy trading:

Fixed Income

Unchanged. Still waiting for cycle change in yields - we are close to breaking triple bottom, but for now holding out for "surprise" upside either through more liquidity (read: reflation) or better than expected US data.

Foreign Exchange

Long AUD.CAD - starting to accelerate - looks fine.

Long EUR P, 1.44 (spot @ 1.4710) 1 month

Long JPY C, 104 (spot @ 108.25) 2 weeks

Long EURSEK, and Long NOKSEK.

NOKSEK flirting with 1.20000 today, break should lead to 1.2500. In times of recession these two economies are VERY different.

Sweden is VERY open economy, with most of the Swedish companies being US dependent. This could be seen through Q3-4 in 2007 when the Swedish stock market significantly underperformed other European Indices. This is continuing, and as a rule to exception Riksbank is more negative than the local banks, leaving door open for much, much higher EURSEK.

Norway on the other hand, will see demand for oil and fish, BUT.. if oil starts to react to RECESSION fear, it should also find support around 7.90000.....

Commodities

My biggest change - I have been drumming for GRAINS and Crude for almost two years now, but now I am getting square.

It has to be said I am a very defensive fund manager, but the upcoming USDA Crop report tomorrow got me worried. Following the "real experts" it seems we, the financial people are, too bullish in the wrong time of year. An excellent link http://www.agriculture.com/ag/

I sold my long time holding of DBA yesterday @ 34.45 -

I also as stated yesterday sold Crude(Feb) @ 96.95 - We have been trading in- and out so we are now comfortable short from 103 USD net, which have taken us above the critical 102 $ line.

Remember the play here is merely for Crude to "catch up" with the recession story - another way to play this could be to short SHIPPING........

Equity

Tried the long side into close yesterday, did not feel right and our model continues to ask us to wait for confirmation, which I will respect.

Early last week I put downside break @ 60/40, it is now 75/25, we really need "something tangible" from Bernanke tonight, next week in Congress or at the next meeting. Note that market got 50 bps @ 75% probability, almost destined to disappoint.

OVERALL

Still in day-by-day play, but getting feeling new trend emerging... Crude right now trading 93.70, having broken critical 95.55 - and gold offered to... 850/55 test will be critical, I am net buyer net seller, but not before those levels.

Theme: Recession light - and the repricing needed plus re-coupling, the US is not, not alone in lower growth rates..

I am attending conference tomorrow with Lawrence Summers, sponsored by Skagen Fonds, I am looking forward to asking him about "strong US dollar policy" if I get the chance....

Stay lucky,

Steen

A day in positive-land...

Well, once in a while it's good to join the other side, to get a different perspective.

I did that today, first I spent some time reading up on some of the better independent research firms out there BCA & Bridgewater, then I joined Soc. Gen for their lunch presentation with their Chief US Economist Stephen Gallagher, who writes some excellent research pieces week in and week out.

The arguments of the "positive" camp summed up by me are:

- Looking back at prior crisis' there is something missing this time....
- The consumer not going to back down.....
- Fed will do what's needed......

It is hard to argue with them if you only use data since 1982, which 99,9% of them do in their analysis. Yes, then something is missing, but.....

What lacking is not signs, but the reaction.... the automatic pilot which "bails" them, the economist, and the market out each time.

The central banks DOES realise there is moral hazard in rushing to the rescue, I think the best analogy of the present situation was given by McCulley, of Pimco....

He talks about, having been at Jackson Hole, how the Fed wants to reset the strike price of the Fed put.

I.e: slower and less predicable. That's a huge difference from the present mindset of the idiots like Cramer & Kudlow. Who thinks: Cut= Good No cut= Bad.

He goes on... "Fed does realise that risk aversion has not historically been broken except by cuts if Fed Funds policy rate". Freakin exactly!

So.. what we got is; a New reaction function, which is NOT automatic AND we got CB's, not only Fed, who wants to let the market play out its games, because it is ALL games!

I find it so ironic that the very people who wants and calls for Fed to cut, are arguing stock are cheap based on fundamentals! Why then do Fed have to cut?

Enough on this, I was inspired yesterday by John Makin latest op-ed in WSJ, which calls for Q4-2007 to have negative growth of 0.8%. I could not do his piece justice by trying to para-phrase him but here is the link:

http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.26775/pub_detail.asp


A few headlines from him:

- Reduced flow of credit to all borrowers, while increasing the cost of borrowing for credit worhty borrowers"
- Every time in the last 50 years that residential investment been this negative - it has meant a RECESSION
- American recessions unusual because it implies "negative consumption growth"
- The Excess of 2000-2001 bubble was in the capital stock, hence no material impact on consumer, and it took eight quarter to run this unwind
- the -0.8% comes from: Flat consumer growth, a negative 1 pct-point from fixed business investment, and plus 0.2 from the rest (which is average since 2001).

Well, I am really not in position to feel confident about neither the Positive-land story or the negative as represented by Mr Makin, but.... I am defensive still.

There is absolutely NO reason to be brave right now. There is still bubble in carry-trading, market believe in Santa Claus (Santa Bennie), and credit market is on a strike not seen since Reagan flighted the flight controllers!

End of this game is how the American consumer reacts, or in worst case, the foreign investors in the US dollar.

The second part have got some headline recently as US dollar index broken the 80,00 pretty much predicting free fall on the cards now.



I remain EXTREMELY sceptical on the US consumer, his headwinds are considerable:

Higher living costs, higher energy cost, no growth in disposable income, higher funding costs.

We have seen major ticket item stocks like Harley Davidson collapse recently, to me that's sign things are NOT that good. A seen by this chart (click on it to enlarge) the HOG stock been drifting down since MAY!.. Leading or lagging? I will let you be the judge.

Tactical

Fixed Income: Neutral. Long some Euribor calls as ECB too hawkish, but valuation is stretched even though duration data supports long position.

Commodities: Looking to short Soya and Corn. Crude = neutral

Foreign Exchange: Long JPY vs EUR and USD, short US index

Equity: Long Asian real estate, mining, and Asia in general, vs. long gamma position in Dax and S&P500.

Cash: Still 60% ish...

This is trying times for all of us; central banks, hedge fund managers, investors, the real questions to me remains: Is the paradigm shift?

Yes, I believe it is, the consequences will start to materialise over the next six month via increased leadership from Asia, increased SWF impact and repositioning of central banks reserves, but as always I am merely small farmer son from Denmark with less predictive powers than a monkey throwing darts.

Steen

Another big day in the market...ECB & BoE

The Beige book was far more upbeat than market expected - the evidence, though, would have been available at Jackson Hole meeting, but what remains is that the US at large in August were more 'fearing than feeling' the new paradigm of NO liquidity for banks.

I did however, stumle upon a very interesting note from a former colleague; Jessie Tay, UBS, Singapore, she noted that: "In a highly unusual move, FHLB, another GSE, revealed that they have lent 110 bln. $ in August, which I understand to be 6 month to 2 yr funding. They normally disclose quarterly. "The 12 Federal Home Loan Banks lend money to 8,100 thrifts, credit unions, insurance companies and commercial banks at below market rates in order to finance their holding of mortgages. The banks in the system, which was formed 75 years ago, also buy and hold mortgage related assets themselves"...

The irony as she also conclude; so this credit crunch happened DESPITE most financial institutions having access to funding in August. Maybe that's why the pain was not felt YET ?

Staying on credit I noted in FT's Gillian Tett piece yesterday that she qouted international monetary sources as saying : "What is happening right now suggest that the moves by the FED and the ECB just havent worked as we hoped" Interesting someone with sense of the situation?

BOE is unchanged today so is ECB anything else would be surprise. ECB is dogmatic so bigger risk for something ODD to happen there.

Another company goes under in New Zealand the RBA's Costello admits: "...sub-prime hurt confidence". RBA also widen the repos amid credit squeeze.

Basically, nothing have changed, the off-balance sheet to on-balance sheet continues, and in this light we should also see Citigroups closing down Tribecca, and internal hedge fund, which when launched was supposed to get 20 bln. USD under management!

Readers of my "analysis" know I think EVERYTHING in the world is connected to JPY volaitlity, to prove the point here is chart showing ABC/Wash. Post week confidence indicator and JPY vol 12 mos (inversed).... Hereuka! Its another match. (double click on chart and it enlarges)

So... according to correlation, if JPY volatility does not come down then there will be no improvement in US confidence.


Tatical approach

Fixed Income: Clearly the tug of war continues. Central banks can not solve this, there needs to be serious downsizing of balance sheets in the banks.

10y notes made new high and if 5.44% goes in yield, we have new BULL fixed income market. This is justified as duration analysis shows the heavy weights funds (real money) been building potentially forcing others to join them.

I am neutral as I want to see ECB and BOE lingo, plus get feel for unemployment number tomorrow, but I am on the side of the big boys here.

Foreign Exchange:

Between rock and a hard plate. US dollar if Fed is going to give the market its cut, then it become question of... 25?, 50?, 75? If less than 50 bps next few month, US dollar will have strong recovery. The talk of China abolishing US Fixed income does not really makes sense, but I am more prone to buy US dollar than selling them, as the improvement in trade deficit "normally" coincides with stronger US dollar.

High yielder NZD and AUD have seen their highs - reality is hitting them with tight money markets, and sub-prime issues.

Long CHF again from this morning on technical input, also got feeling ECB numbers going to be weaker than Swiss from here.

Long JPY, despite both weak Nikkei and economy. In times of crisis, the Japanse starts to repatriate we saw that in the Asia crisis, and from the price action recently I feel its likely again. Volatility remains elevated.

Equity;

Still mega long gamma downside.


Good luck with ECB and BOE.

Steen