False hopes? False breaks? Next 48 hrs key

Faith, as well intentioned as it may be, must be built on facts, not fiction--faith in fiction is a damnable false hope. Thomas Edison

I'm VERY disappointed in the follow through of Gold and overall on the "RISK ON" environment. My partner Jesper and I read the single biggest amount of POSTIVE reports from all types of asset managers yday they all had this theme:

• Reflation is on... it's good for risk.... (Low funding, Yield curve,"everything but cash"....
• Market will implode up... This from three or four major BEARS....
• Politics rules the game - hence "relax" take some risk.
• Valuations is only fair not expensive..
• Sentiments bullish but this is different....

Then add charts like the blow:

http://twitpic.com/h6gwu

(This is Auto regression on cash gold... V. short term 5 days- reflecting the maximum attention span of todays "traders"... ) Note the ADX above 60 back in time vis-a-vis timing...

Finally, bottom line issues:

The breaks in DXY (US dollar index weaker).. Gold above 1000 and Fixed income breaking down (reference 121.00 front contract in Bunds)...

Gold now below 990.00 - Fixed income too close to sell entry for my liking.. and post Bank of England today where is the DXY ?

Finally, I put NO faith in my own predictions.. but for Bank of England I look for BETTER THAN expected talk from BOE....... but then again been wrong before and often...

Conclusion: Wait to see if the above breaks confirms, be nervous about the RECENT steepness of trends in key markets..... 9-11 is tomorrow.....

This trader is trading EXTREMELY light.. but from RISK ON - now NEUTRAL to looking to go short RISK...

Safe trading,

Steen