mandag den 6. april 2009

Meetings are indispensable when you don't want to do anything. Gailbraith

Back! Had one week on the sidelines from the economic epic centre of Marbella, Spain - and being an observer of the markets and Summits last week was probably the right way to play the markets.

Clearly there is a "crisis fatique" which somehow means anything and everything which comes out from central banks & policy makers makes the market goes higher. No problem with me - although I am "intellectually hurt" by the rise, it does however make for excellent time to construct and contemplate the next move in this market.

The noise factor hit maximum with the G-20 meeting last week - we have now had weeks upon weeks with hearings, plan, revised plans, and summits since low in early March.... basically one week equals 1 trl. US Dollar spend of your tax payer money, but do not worry, it will all work out fine........

I have very few positions (85% cash), the only one working being my short gold, which this morning is touching 875.00 - I must be the only bear on GOLD in the world, but this printing of money, and a total believe in FIAT economies will make government sell their stock of gold, likewise will international institutions be forced to do the same, but most importantly, my leading indicator on the gold, the Indian local market, is now NET EXPORTING gold for the first time in history...

I remain short EURUSD, I was even profitable for one day last week ;-), I simply do not buy that delaying the process of goin to QE or the like should be good for Europe. The Europe I know is falling apart as final demand is nowhere to be 2009 and in 2010....

Taking about falling apart, Switzerland!

Not only pressure due to the G-20 communique on tax havens, but also now sliding into DEFLATION, the very thing Trichet can not imagine (hence it will happen).... -

I bought some EURCHF this am, if for nothing else as hedge versus my negative outlook in everything else.. (long 1.5270 with stop 1.5150 (fwd points - 8))

The Swiss economic data simply terrifying making it a good old game of competitive devaluation ? Looking at this chart there is plenty of weakening possible: (Click on chart to enlarge)

Finally running through my daily charts I note, again, Credits improving, Sentiments bull/bear at very high (contrarian high even), 75% of all stocks above their 50 MA....but..... Why is freight rates continuing to drop? Mystery....... but enough from this old, grey, simple is king.......still.... Safe trading,


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