fredag den 24. april 2009

The war between unemployment and green shoots

Dear Investors,

I have to agree - it does not "feel" like the recession is getting worse anymore - and I have for some time talked about the "crisis fatique" being one key component of this rise in the stock market, but then again.... I'm just back from Dublin and even here it did not feel as bad as it did in October when I was there last, but.....on my way to the restaurant with my friend Tim I passed what I can only discribe as the biggest job queue line I have ever seen - so big in fact it made it to The Independent , so in the medium term what is more important - the lack of jobs or a "feeling" of feeling better?

Being the manic depressive person I am I will vouch for the job loss' being the key driver, but I have been wrong so many times before.

In the portfolio allocation I had great start to the week with the sell of the highs on Friday last, but this bull market looks strong and gaining strength - by Monday I may have to recalibrate my short-term view of this market.......failure to stay below 875.00 on the close will be disappointment for me....

The same goes for EURUSD from 1.2900 to 1.33 ish.. is big news - all based - again- and improving PMI around one seems to care that ECB is soooo behind the curve they soon will "lapsed" by the rest of the world - the financial implosion of Europe is getting closer - unemployment will rise DRAMATICALLY in Q3 and Q4 ... so ultimately maybe my partner Jesper Christiansen is right.... this market may have more "days" in it, than I am willing to admit... but the game plan remains the same...

Only change in portfolio is small long XAU/USD (gold) from short EURUSD, long EURSEK, short S&P, DOW 85%...

Safe trading and nice week-end,


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