mandag den 23. februar 2009

My Karma ran over your dogma. Unknown

It's kind of dramatic that Obama did not even manage to get himself 100 days of honeymoon - his administration has been mirred in mistakes and major policy confusion, but what must really hurt is the stock market reaction to him and his merry men.....- Obama speaks --- market waits -- then sell off --- Geithner speaks market sells of before, while and after.....

Change? The only change is the change left in the tax payers pockets after Obama have spend their money.... and this week is Budget Forum week - how UN-Keynesian!

First they spend the money, then they make plans for cutting back - not even good old Keynes can they get right !
Either you put the invisible hand (animal spirit) to work or not - Not even you Obama can have it both ways! - I find it extremely frightning that Obama seems so driven by spin doctors and bad advice He is for EVERYTHING the voters wants...but "believes in ?"...- my advice to you O and let us not forget I am merely a simple Europea hedge fund manager but:
  • Take the loss on Geithner - cut him, not even his own Fed supports him!!!!!!!
  • Take your loss on Summers - anyone who thinks aloud that women are inferior to men needs their head examined - plus he is so outdated he is almost fashionable
  • Finally "pay Volcker" - the only voice of reason in your cabinet and someone whom the market will listen to.....

The rumours of Jamie Dimon in the wings is a joke - who with a job would want to join US Politics - and become colleagues with people like Barney Franks?

Meanwhile in "Fantasy Policy- Land" - i.e Fed,the US Treasury, US Government, UK Government and ECB there are plenty of plans, but as someone more clever than me wrote this morning:

"There is no way you can rebuild the financial system from top down....there are plenty of architects but we really need plumbers" true, so true...

  1. Trichet, my "favourite" central banker in-denial: want to regulate some more: Well done Mr. President that will work:
  2. Citibank is closed to being "nationalised" - what happens to sub-debt? Default clauses? Ouch, this could get worse than Lehman

  3. In WSJ article headlined: Red Light flasing again we are told: a) LIBOR- Swap spread which reached high of 366 last year - saw 90 in January is now rising above 100 again b) Markit LCDX (100 leveraged loans) at close to record lows again (@ 72,5% of face) and swap pay-out now based on 40% recovery vs 20 y avg of 81% pay-back c) CMBX (25 Commercial mortgage backed securities) at new record highs - with Moodys looking to downgrade 320 bln. of other words: It aint over yet....
  4. Government bail-outs doesn't work! Don't trust me but do read Ela Glowicka on IDEAS on - less than 40% of companies receiving aid exists 10 years later --- C'mon lets spend some more money......!
  5. Gold - being told, mainly by my friend Antonio Savoca of UBS, that I should think of GOLD as an currency - and that it will go to 1500 and then 2000 US Dollar - You know me, not one to shy away from an outragous prediction but this is a little rich.....but I could be wrong not having exposure...but the true contrarian is flat.....
  6. EU/EEC - let them try to sort of the mess in Eastern Europe....but with NO TREASURY the task is several fold harder than in the US - who will print the money?

Enough from me, only getting back into the research game... I am still looking for:

EURUSD in 1.0000 - the game will commence ready to watch the "Trichet Horror Show".......The trailer talks of: All the mistakes which can be done will be done, no one has ever been more dogmatic when faced with REAL FACTS, see how central banking was 20 years ago, and with performers like Barroso wanting to export the European "Social economic model" we are in for a real treat not seen since Hitchcock....

S&P getting close to my minimum target of 690 - my friend Drew wants 620 minimum to be happy, and I know Drew is not one to change his mind (fortunately!)......

10 years yield in the US will flirt with 2.00% - by the way ? How are the "Bubble in fixed income" Ivory Tower people doing ?


75% cash/fixed income

25% applied aggessively negatively..

Long 1800 Stoxx50 March, short EURUSD; short S&P, long EUR/EEC - looking to increase JPY exposure...

Safe trading


PS: Did I tell you this smells like it did before LEHMAN tanked? Check this link: Something is rotten.....

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