A long summer is coming to an end here on the seaside in Denmark - but this weekend its back to the City and a serious look at the markets again - I have been all but away from everything since Mid-July where I went away extremely confident about further downside - How wrong can you be? Well in my case it was mind-blowingly wrong!!!!
I stil fail to understand major parts of this cycle, but clearly the investment banks are now all busy resetting their US growth numbers to 2 at 3 pct for H2 of 2009.
I'm in no position to disagree honestly, but let's see next week when all the models and analysis is up and running again.
Monday is also the first working day with my partner Jesper Christiansen in our new company, something I have looked forward to all summer.........:
Limus Capital Partners - more on this later, but as of now my new official e-mails becomes:
sj@limuscapital.com
Keep the faith and enjoy the "jolly days of this rally"....a let me leave you with this little "vocabulary" of Geithner/Obama administration: (links from Zerohedge and Olof Lindgren
GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
125K+ jobs lost from GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
unemployment @ 9% = BETTER THAN EXPECTED
unemployment @ 10% = DOW SOARS
unemployment @ 11% = GREEN SHOOT RALLY
unemployment @ 12% = ALREADY FACTORED IN
unemployment = 35% = DOW DROPS 100 POINTS
housing price =1% = RECESSION ENDING
housing collapses = GREEN SHOOT
Housing falls 20% = STABILIZATION
Government spends 1 trillion of OUR dollars = STIMULUS
North Korea fires nuke = RALLY
Israel bombs Iran = 30 MINUTE END OF DAY RALLY
world explodes = ASIA RALLIES
PMI crashes = HUGE RALLY
No jobs are created = RECESSION ALMOST OVER
U.S. debt overwhelming = TOO BUSY RALLYING TO CARE
Consumer stops spending = RETAIL RALLY
Banks are insolvent = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
American auto industry BK = GOOD THING
Banks pass scam stress tests = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
Banks "only need 75 billion = OUT OF THE WOODS
Banks pass a real stress test = NEVER WOULD HAPPEN
Banks pay back tarp = LATE DAY SURGE
Banks can't pay back TARP = EARLY MORNING SURGE
12% mortgage delinquency = GOOD FOR STOCKS
Hundreds of thousands of mortgages underwater = HOUSING BOTTOMED
Dollar rises = RALLY
Dollar crashes = RALLY
Inflation = BULL MARKET
Deflation = BULL MARKET CONTINUES
REFLATION = MASSIVE SHORT COVERING RALLY
Gold rises = STOCKS RALLY
Gold falls STOCKS RALLY BIG
Banks' fake earnings = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
CRE stabilizing= 1000 POINT RALLY
CRE CRASHING = STOCKS SHAKE IT OFF TO RALLY
CONSUMER INSOVENT = CONSUMER IS SPENDING
OIL @ 50 = BULL RALLY
OIL @ 60 = GREEN SHOOT
OIL @ 100 = IMPORTANT RECOVERY SIGN
OIL @ 20 = TAX BREAK
And the one we should all interpret correctly:
NO ONE IS BUYING STOCKS = BILLIONS ON THE SIDELINES
Best summer wishes,
Steen Jakobsen
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