fredag den 14. august 2009

RISK OFF is the answer it seems...

Uni. of Michigan horrible! Simply horrible!

Final note:

Things make sense again... Uni of Mich shows increased worries about health care and jobs.. AND it highlights my continued issue
Obama facing serious headwind at home..

90% of all our propriatory indicators are now poised lower..only one's holding in.. being: "weak US dollar"
and stock market..

END OF day today could FINALISE DIVERGENCE in place.. but its too early yet..

Look at the charts from earlier today -

Positionwise it was a long, long day entering the market from RISK ON perspective, but we managed to change things around and came home ok - it was not a great day trading wise, small profit, but I think the day answered or will answer some key questions:

  • Remember ALWAYS: Market direction comes 90% from political and ad hoc driven events - mostly political ones - Obama headwind at home becoming the gravity of this market - also Bernanke now facing his re-selection (including Senate approval)...
  • Fixed income is in cyclical bullish phase as shown through the prisme of tech. trading yesterday and today. Fed stopping the buy-back is POSITIVE
  • The gap between perceived growth/profit and reality is just getting bigger and bigger - a jobless recovery is no recovery - even a Central planned economy like the US end of day needs to do one thing only: Create long-term jobs!
  • The consensus view will be tested next week: This could be down, down and neutral Q4 - instead of small down, big up... but that's for gurus not speculators like me.

Views per risk class:


Still think next major move will be strong US dollar overall - concerned about USDJPY leading everything down today- Risk of indicator or US Dollar weakness. I vote for the first.

Cons: GBP, EUR, SEK, AUD, ERM-general...


Strongest view - remain very long cash bonds for 90% of portfolio - (Danish bonds)--
Market got too little exposure presently.


Net shorted Danish market today, short S&P with 1020-00 two days above ..stop....
Like US better than Europe. Asia less than Europe.....
Sectors: Shipping, mining, banking at major risk here...


Sell Sugar - excessive spec.
Short Crude...
Short Gold.

Looking to buy GRAINS - long DBA ETF

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

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