mandag den 24. august 2009

Expensive!

Talk about an expensive trading week last week.....- will you? Cost me a few thoughts over the week-end to reasses last week action - it seems the present mode is one of:

Good data being rewarded - poor data ignored! To be honest probably not much of a surprise considering even President Obama has left town for better "climate": http://tinyurl.com/nz56jc

The house-keeping on positions should note I got stopped out of the S&P position with the break of 1018-00 on Friday, and we now "only" need confirmation for this "rally" by virtue of staying two to three days above this on a closing basis....if so 1050 begs, and even 1130.

Our main scenario of down now (August through September), up in Q4 could still work, although the August rally sort of derailed the process by a further one to three weeks..damn...

There is absolutley NO DOUBT that data from September through to December will "good" - at least relative to worst recession since the 1930s.

The real issue,however, is whether it will be enough to nourish growth when the life-support machine of cash-for-clonkers, tax benefit on first mortgages, the more positive talk from central bankes indicating the low rates may have a final sales date attached to it, plus rising cyclical unemployment comes into play.

There is a growing number of geopolitical concerns coming onto the radar:

Ukraine vs Russia is once again focus point as Medvedev insults Ukrainian president on the anniversary: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/staging_site/in_depth/georgia_russia_conflict/default.stm (also most importantly: Read... The Economist this week on why Ukraine vs Russia is and will be major issue)

German election in September.......and Japanese similar end of this month - in the later we will most certainly say goodbye to the ruling of LDP - finally......whether this is good or bad remains to be seen........

Freight rates had terrible day end of last week - we shorted some shipping companies on the correlation - with loss so far.... :-)

Fixed income is holding up quiet nicely - fortunately for me - the "real life" choice here is between 1% in the banks or 3-4% with the Government bonds? - I believe the choice is obvious, even more so from the angle of Macro Investor - with stock markets hitting YTD high, long FI become relatively low risk bet....

In the world of FX I am slowly building bigger position short the GBP for now vs. USD, but later vs. basket of currencies like SGD, JPY and NOK.......as the QE is not enough to safe a country which is utterly and exclusively dependeable of life-support in the shape of cheap money for the banks.

The mere fact bankers in London (and New York) can claim bonus' on trades which end of day involves taking in money for ZERO PCT(funded by your government) - and lend them out for 12% or placing them in yielding bonds is beyond me.................

The same tax payers who are losing their jobs right now.... are also paying through their nose to bankers taking ZERO RISK!!!!!

This insults me as a capitalist, as a poor (intellectually and monetary) speculator, but mostly as a tax payer - Fact is my dog could do the same job !!!!!

This is why "intervention" does not work - the unintended consequences of macro dececisions will ALWAYS, ALWAYS go wrong... Yes, indeed, you can do the wrong things for the right reason, but it does not make you smart or a hero...and you certainly should not get bonus' for picking up dimes on the street.....

Well enough said - week three of this Speculators nightmare has started... I beg you all a nice evening - safe trading and we will blog again tomorrow...

Steen

1 kommentarer:

Luc sagde ...

Talk about an expensive trading week last week.....- will you? Cost me a few thoughts over the week-end to reasses last week action - it seems the present mode is one of:

Good data being rewarded - poor data ignored! To be honest probably not much of a surprise considering even President Obama has left town for better "climate": http://tinyurl.com/nz56jc

The house-keeping on positions should note I got stopped out of the S&P position with the break of 1018-00 on Friday, and we now "only" need confirmation for this "rally" by virtue of staying two to three days above this on a closing basis....if so 1050 begs, and even 1130.

Our main scenario of down now (August through September), up in Q4 could still work, although the August rally sort of derailed the process by a further one to three weeks..damn...

There is absolutley NO DOUBT that data from September through to December will "good" - at least relative to worst recession since the 1930s.

The real issue,however, is whether it will be enough to nourish growth when the life-support machine of cash-for-clonkers, tax benefit on first mortgages, the more positive talk from central bankes indicating the low rates may have a final sales date attached to it, plus rising cyclical unemployment comes into play.

There is a growing number of geopolitical concerns coming onto the radar:

Ukraine vs Russia is once again focus point as Medvedev insults Ukrainian president on the anniversary: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/staging_site/in_depth/georgia_russia_conflict/default.stm (also most importantly: Read... The Economist this week on why Ukraine vs Russia is and will be major issue)

German election in September.......and Japanese similar end of this month - in the later we will most certainly say goodbye to the ruling of LDP - finally......whether this is good or bad remains to be seen........

Freight rates had terrible day end of last week - we shorted some shipping companies on the correlation - with loss so far.... :-)

Fixed income is holding up quiet nicely - fortunately for me - the "real life" choice here is between 1% in the banks or 3-4% with the Government bonds? - I believe the choice is obvious, even more so from the angle of Macro Investor - with stock markets hitting YTD high, long FI become relatively low risk bet....

In the world of FX I am slowly building bigger position short the GBP for now vs. USD, but later vs. basket of currencies like SGD, JPY and NOK.......as the QE is not enough to safe a country which is utterly and exclusively dependeable of life-support in the shape of cheap money for the banks.

The mere fact bankers in London (and New York) can claim bonus' on trades which end of day involves taking in money for ZERO PCT(funded by your government) - and lend them out for 12% or placing them in yielding bonds is beyond me.................

The same tax payers who are losing their jobs right now.... are also paying through their nose to bankers taking ZERO RISK!!!!!

This insults me as a capitalist, as a poor (intellectually and monetary) speculator, but mostly as a tax payer - Fact is my dog could do the same job !!!!!

This is why "intervention" does not work - the unintended consequences of macro dececisions will ALWAYS, ALWAYS go wrong... Yes, indeed, you can do the wrong things for the right reason, but it does not make you smart or a hero...and you certainly should not get bonus' for picking up dimes on the street.....

Well enough said - week three of this Speculators nightmare has started... I beg you all a nice evening - safe trading and we will blog again tomorrow...

Steen