onsdag den 12. august 2009

FOMC, FOMC and FOMC

The issue as an investor right now is between.......

The need for intervention to work

The world needs a good close to 2009 - the time buying and excessive public spending is a project which can not be seen as failing (that it will fail.... is different agenda all together..)...

This entails the "smart money" is betting that the O-team will do ANYTHING to keep the momentum going into mid-term election and the agenda being one of FIGHTING BUSINESS - which mimicks the F.D.R - New Deal version 2.0 (do yourself favor and read F.D.R's inauguration speech)....

This could mean sell-off post FOMC today, but "quality buying" below ---- then rally into close of 2009 ....and then in 2010/2011 we will resume NEGATIVE tractions and new lows in the market...

The need for gravity to work

The buying of time is running out, the gap betwen "presumed" impact and realised is still huge and growing ... unemployment is rising.. everywhere, credit not reaching the consumers, and the new new growth is sub 2.0% looking 5-10 years forward. My favourite economist, John Makin, goes as far as saying 1% 2nd half 2009 growth is unrealistic, and that -2% is likely. http://www.aei.org/docLib/08-EO-Aug-2009g.pdf

The critical level of 1000-1050 reached and many "guru's" now looking for top in place..

We will focus on FOMC for now - and keeping things light... but here as few thoughts:


Agriculture:

We like it again, both from momentum but also fundamental value. China's growth is tax on farming prices - expect steep rise in autumn. Long DBA.

Fixed Income:

Still long Danish Fixed Income...

Foreign Exchange:

Strongest view: Short GBP - into quantative easing .... also long DXY (US Dollar index over FOMC for break - or stop out if FED goes further into QE)....

Like NOK - looking to short AUD....

Commodities:

Can not buy GOLD when we now world is entering long-term negative growth cycle, with excess capacity everywhere.... risk of crude like long pain..... was short took it back pre- FOMC

Crude: Short... for now.. .cyclical - but likes long-term prices action...

OVERALL:

Cold as ice, slowing getting into market, but it is hard to restart the engines ...also as we were so wrong during the summer months.....

Safe trading,

Steen

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