I'm in Paris, Zurich and Geneva and there is one common theme: Denial.... financial crisis does not happen here, its somebody elses problem.... shopping is good, no pain.......
Meanwhile in Washington Geithner is also in denial.... I am so sorry I "forgot" to pay tax for 5 years........
The outgoing President Bush also claims..... He did a few mistakes but he left the US a better and safer place...
I must be from the moon...... I have travelled pretty much the whole world in the last three month and the only two places where denial is prevalent is Paris & Geneva/Zurich....
Another theme I found again and again was the morale hazard many company CEOs have created for themselves..... annoucing 2008 was a great year, no incoming crisis in sight...and now they are forced to not only cut marketing spending, expansion plan but most importantly making serious lay-offs..... the world is in the "winter phase", globalisation works, and it's time to face reality and move away from everything being based on hope....... (ands the non-change Obama stands for)
Position wise.. I still keep 75% in cash/bonds.... 25% applied negatively.....net short dax, s&p and eurusd mainly.... 650-690 the goal......both from technical perspective but also from bottom up analysis.... ( 50 US Dollar expected earnings in the S&P ...13 P/E (recession lows) equals.....650....)
I look forward to the market moving to more realisme as it would indicate conditions should be improving.. for now my key indicator remains unemployment as long as the velocity of lay-offs are accelerating.. I wil remain short.......
Safe trading,
Steen
Meanwhile in Washington Geithner is also in denial.... I am so sorry I "forgot" to pay tax for 5 years........
The outgoing President Bush also claims..... He did a few mistakes but he left the US a better and safer place...
I must be from the moon...... I have travelled pretty much the whole world in the last three month and the only two places where denial is prevalent is Paris & Geneva/Zurich....
Another theme I found again and again was the morale hazard many company CEOs have created for themselves..... annoucing 2008 was a great year, no incoming crisis in sight...and now they are forced to not only cut marketing spending, expansion plan but most importantly making serious lay-offs..... the world is in the "winter phase", globalisation works, and it's time to face reality and move away from everything being based on hope....... (ands the non-change Obama stands for)
Position wise.. I still keep 75% in cash/bonds.... 25% applied negatively.....net short dax, s&p and eurusd mainly.... 650-690 the goal......both from technical perspective but also from bottom up analysis.... ( 50 US Dollar expected earnings in the S&P ...13 P/E (recession lows) equals.....650....)
I look forward to the market moving to more realisme as it would indicate conditions should be improving.. for now my key indicator remains unemployment as long as the velocity of lay-offs are accelerating.. I wil remain short.......
Safe trading,
Steen
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