fredag den 24. oktober 2008

It feels like 1992, it smells like 1992, but its 2008

This is very similar to what I felt before Bank of England gave up in 1992 - Every single central bank in the world are protecting their currencies by hiking rates - No, they do not learn from history!

Having said that this note will be short:

My targets in: Gold @ 700 been reached - in process of taking profit.....EURUSD @ 1.2700 been reached and exceeed - took profit. Bunds @ 117.00 took profit.

I will go home SQUARE - and I mean 100% cash tonight - We had great run last two month and it is time to honor the trading Gods by not believing in ..... "easy money"...

I feel the pain of my colleagues - they are hurt, but too many of them still "hope" - The hopers needs to learn that hope belongs in Churches on Sundays (In Denmark) no where else.

This week-end Central banks and governments will be busy putting together packages. Close to home in Denmark, we will get State Guarantee for Mortgages..... closing down the arbitrage between Deposits and Mortgage bonds.

Dirigisme - the most dangerous thing in the world is being used to talk about market potentially being closed for one or two weeks (Roubinin & Berlousconi both should have said so - I did not have time to verify either so please check yourselves)

I just had conversation with journalist from Norway and when being asked what the policians and policy makers could do to make this better I impulsively said: "Ask them to shut up!" Sounds harsh - why do not you listen to this link: or even better consult studies on political economies:

As I always ask: Why was President Bill Clinton so successful (vis-a-vis economic growth)? Because he never EVER got anything done - it was eight years of total political vacuum on major issues - In vacuums the economy adjust on the micro-level.

What we need now is for the Americans to feel and understand why they need to save money - not because Government tells them to, but because its the only way.

Before I get attacked for being elitist, european and high-horsed, the same goes for European banks, consumers, real estate people - if you think money will be free forever then reality is here now.



To have a week-end with no positions. (well entirely true - bought way of the money STOXX50 calls - only because I know I have no predictive powers)

Safe tradings all of you.

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