Dear Investors,
Seems the "temptation" was too big at the critical 882-00 level, and the normal "sell-of" Monday cycle has been replaced by a buying Monday, if tomorrow do not follow the normal pattern of being an "upday" its either sign of some behavioural changes in investors, or sign this top is in place - There are several schools and logic to seeing a "melt up" in S&P as my good friend Drew Baptiste, MS, says in his notes today, but there is also a terrible "consensus" move change almost daily presently, a sign things are about to heat up.
Clearly a close below 880 - is one sign - and on the top side 930 becomes a key issue for further gains into the 950/1050 expected top for the year...
(click on chart for bigger size)
I am again pretty much sidelined as I can not make head-or-tail in this market - my inclination is for top being in place, but on the other hand the lack of follow through concerns me - hence the almost tiny interet in getting involved for real untill this range gets "unstuck".....
The dynamics of the market is thorne between "nervousness" of missing the train - again- on the upside and risk of being caught too long on the topside.......
I know im rambling, but bottom line... wait for market to evolve - I notice or rather my friend Jesper noticed the "usual" front page from Barrons in May.
Source: http://www.barrons.com/
I have always loved reading Barrons, but its timing and being front page has not always worked out - Clearly we "all" think there is one final bubble, i.e the low yields in the world, but as I have stated again and again it really depends on your starting premise: I.e: Which is greater the falling velocity of money or the inflationary "printing" of new money? You will know I am in the camp of "disinflation/deflation", but as Barrons clearly makes the case for ......the risk being this could be the biggest bubble left to play... I will look into how the ultimate "reflation"-basket has been doing recently: Long Gold, short T-bond, long crude, short US dollars.....
Anyhow, safe wind and safe trading.
Seems the "temptation" was too big at the critical 882-00 level, and the normal "sell-of" Monday cycle has been replaced by a buying Monday, if tomorrow do not follow the normal pattern of being an "upday" its either sign of some behavioural changes in investors, or sign this top is in place - There are several schools and logic to seeing a "melt up" in S&P as my good friend Drew Baptiste, MS, says in his notes today, but there is also a terrible "consensus" move change almost daily presently, a sign things are about to heat up.
Clearly a close below 880 - is one sign - and on the top side 930 becomes a key issue for further gains into the 950/1050 expected top for the year...
(click on chart for bigger size)
I am again pretty much sidelined as I can not make head-or-tail in this market - my inclination is for top being in place, but on the other hand the lack of follow through concerns me - hence the almost tiny interet in getting involved for real untill this range gets "unstuck".....
The dynamics of the market is thorne between "nervousness" of missing the train - again- on the upside and risk of being caught too long on the topside.......
I know im rambling, but bottom line... wait for market to evolve - I notice or rather my friend Jesper noticed the "usual" front page from Barrons in May.
Source: http://www.barrons.com/
I have always loved reading Barrons, but its timing and being front page has not always worked out - Clearly we "all" think there is one final bubble, i.e the low yields in the world, but as I have stated again and again it really depends on your starting premise: I.e: Which is greater the falling velocity of money or the inflationary "printing" of new money? You will know I am in the camp of "disinflation/deflation", but as Barrons clearly makes the case for ......the risk being this could be the biggest bubble left to play... I will look into how the ultimate "reflation"-basket has been doing recently: Long Gold, short T-bond, long crude, short US dollars.....
Anyhow, safe wind and safe trading.
Steen Jakobsen
PS: Spend some educational time listening to Prof. Thaler if u got the time:
0 kommentarer:
Send en kommentar