mandag den 11. maj 2009

The top is near.... ?

Dear Investors,

Yet another short blog, but I am working on bigger macro piece to put things into perspective..but more and more signals in my contrarian model is indicating RED HOT ALERT - this could be excellent opportunity finally to fade this move - as the weak shorts and now truely committed long. but first a few chart which is important to me:
NAS-100 Index - The technology sector has been leading the charge higher w. financials - all of the sudden the divergence is there - and now potentially also a break back below the much watched 200 MA - watch this index for more clues next few days: (Click on chart for larger version)

The same NAS-100 - merely to underline there has been reveral and plain tech. analysis indicate lower for now..

Then onto Friday unemployment report - if you buy this "improvement" then you need your head examined - the below two charts clearly shows the improvement comes only - and what a surprise in the public sector - with serious hiring for the Consensus 2010 going on.... Does the White House really think we are that stupid. One socalled analyst after the other is calling for Green shoots - and true recovery et al - I note that the US economy improved in 1933 - also a true recovery, but the full recovery did not materialise before 1947/48.

As said I am writing bigger piece on the macro side to establish my position here, but I have to add my partner Jesper Christiansen and I are the most bearish we have been in a long, long time. I should also be noted that Jesper has been far more patient with this rally then me, but we have now positioned ourselves with the funds in Capinordic to underweight equity, Sweden, and overweight inside equity relatively of the US vs Europe.
We firmly believe the slowest mover in QE- takes the biggest loss - or in other words MR. Trichets ridicolous 0.5% of GDP (60 bln. EUR) is nothing compated to the US' 4% and the UK 8% of GDP - this game is now on competitive devaluations, and soon the EURO will roll over in the last effort to create inflation, competitiveness vis-a-vis a world outside the Towers of Frankfurt where everyone and his mother is enganged in weakning their currency - the most aggessive, to no avail, being Switzerland.
This has been "expensive" relative in the short-term, but many people tends to forget investment is a true Marathon not a sprint, but more on this later tonight or tomorrow.
Full alert from here.

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