Well, as the title shows I am perplexed at the new state of Euphoria going through the markets - Do I have to be excited about C being up 65% from the low? Or should I try to put things in perspective and realise the stocks is down - what 95% still?
(click on chart to enlarge)
The main topic remains G-20 and this past week-end summit which on the surface did not produce any result, however in Euphoria-land, there was much more between the lines, as the US is indicating a will to increase the qoutas on GAB and NAB - yes this is the year of short-names I got this link from my friend Tim - which explains the mechanics:
This will SAFE Eastern Europe - so I am sure Russia will immediately roll-back their plans to put missiles and planes in Cuba http://snurl.com/dx3jr
The Euphoria has apparently gotten everyone to turn their forecast higher in EURUSD, several are now calling for 1.4000 before 1.2000 - I was slow on the football pitch, and I am slow in changing my investment outlook - for now I will remain extremely sceptical of the HOPE of resolution.......and focus on the fact that:
- US Current Account is improving day-by-day through trade & higher savings
- Europe via the dogmatic ECB is behind on the economic cycle - and will have to see much more pain, a rising unemployment, and the unwillingness to increase German spending a critical point even for the always happy crowd
- The break today "faded" for now - I believe in hope, but only when used for keeping us alive.....
- Citibanks surprise index continues to show EUR should fall, likewise the real rates difference indicates more pain in Europe than in the US for now..
Otherwise I am very neutral, but this evenings close indicates to me some "top" could be in place, I watched in particular NASDAQ rather forcefull reversal - some charts..
Check this VERY nice feature: http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$SPX,XLF,GS,UUP,skf,GLD,$NDX,QID,UYG,fasBI14,3
Top in place for now?
XLF- The financial ETF looked like it would break now spinning top ?
US Dollar bullish index.....weekly... under threath? We will know soon...
G-20 stakes increased by the minute, dont see why I should be invested - had good start to the year no point in risking it - meanwhile I will accumulate yield on my cash......... 90% cash, rest invested selectively in short EURUSD, some options on downside in Stoxx50, and looking once again to short GOLD, if not GLD.....(break below 890-00 confirms)...