mandag den 16. marts 2009

I have heard your views. They do not harmonize with mine. The decision is taken unanimously. Charles De Gaulle

Dear Investors,

Well, as the title shows I am perplexed at the new state of Euphoria going through the markets - Do I have to be excited about C being up 65% from the low? Or should I try to put things in perspective and realise the stocks is down - what 95% still?

(click on chart to enlarge)

The main topic remains G-20 and this past week-end summit which on the surface did not produce any result, however in Euphoria-land, there was much more between the lines, as the US is indicating a will to increase the qoutas on GAB and NAB - yes this is the year of short-names I got this link from my friend Tim - which explains the mechanics:

This will SAFE Eastern Europe - so I am sure Russia will immediately roll-back their plans to put missiles and planes in Cuba

The EURUSD broke a key level 1.3000-ish this morning, and makes me not only look wrong, but also losing some money, both of which I rather dislikes, but more to the point:

The Euphoria has apparently gotten everyone to turn their forecast higher in EURUSD, several are now calling for 1.4000 before 1.2000 - I was slow on the football pitch, and I am slow in changing my investment outlook - for now I will remain extremely sceptical of the HOPE of resolution.......and focus on the fact that:

  1. US Current Account is improving day-by-day through trade & higher savings
  2. Europe via the dogmatic ECB is behind on the economic cycle - and will have to see much more pain, a rising unemployment, and the unwillingness to increase German spending a critical point even for the always happy crowd
  3. The break today "faded" for now - I believe in hope, but only when used for keeping us alive.....
  4. Citibanks surprise index continues to show EUR should fall, likewise the real rates difference indicates more pain in Europe than in the US for now..

Otherwise I am very neutral, but this evenings close indicates to me some "top" could be in place, I watched in particular NASDAQ rather forcefull reversal - some charts..

Check this VERY nice feature:$SPX,XLF,GS,UUP,skf,GLD,$NDX,QID,UYG,fasBI14,3


Top in place for now?

XLF- The financial ETF looked like it would break now spinning top ?

US Dollar bullish index.....weekly... under threath? We will know soon...


G-20 stakes increased by the minute, dont see why I should be invested - had good start to the year no point in risking it - meanwhile I will accumulate yield on my cash......... 90% cash, rest invested selectively in short EURUSD, some options on downside in Stoxx50, and looking once again to short GOLD, if not GLD.....(break below 890-00 confirms)...

Safe trading,


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