Goodbye my lover...... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVyggTKDcOE
Yes, this is the end of the capitalist system as we knew it, yes it is the end of levels playing fields, yes it is the introduction of the Socialisme .... We won so much, we lost!
This weekends plan is the financial equivalent of Homeland Security Act - and Fed is the Guantanamo - a place where there is no law - no respect for human interest:
Link on code of law :
I am on TEMPORARY buying strike for all US assets. I will not/can not buy any asset from country with no code of law - The US has joined Russia on my list of countries I can not go long.
From 10.000 feet this plan:
Helps the financial institution by virtue of a plan so big its makes the Marshall plan look small - that's the back-stop for financials ...for now
Solvency still the issue at large - I do not believe you get better solvency by introducing measures which is normally safed for war-times - on contraire!
Quit a few countries has issue "threaths" to shut up or ..... --- my own compliance department already been here once this morning, but... let me say this: If there EVER was a time to write/speak and protest against what happens it's now!
This helps the wrong people - AGAIN - the croonies of Wall Street and London City gets help - where is the help for airlines industry, the car industry? There are still 4.5 mio. unsold homes - and with the US issuing unsellable debt which will take long-term US yields to 10% I do not see relief on the horizon.
Short selling ban ? What a joke! Read this 1929 Editorial from *New York Times: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/short-selling-o.html
The next phase is the real economy effects. I am afraid the private investor will use any rally to sell his stock portfolio (note: I certainly think he should) - and now me and my friends in the hedge fund industry will not be the bid - so expect extreme illiqudity and no bids for the poor private investors.
Be long gold, chf, jpy, crude(maybe?), cds on us assets, SHORT US dollar, short US debt(10% is coming to Theathre near you)
We were lucky to cover all shorts Thursday - on Friday we re-established 25% of max short US stocks, we bought CHF, and EUR..... we will sell US Teasuries today, buy gold and await transperency - we are on de facto buying strike - we can not go long ANY US assets for this month and next......we are 85% long cash - rest is used in NEGATIVE option plays.
Let me end by once again saying: I am no predictive powers, I hope I am totally wrong, that I am too negative, but anyone who have spent five minutes reading Thomas Kuhn's; The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm) - knows and identifies this a true PARADIGM SHIFT. When you take this fact to the next level, it becomes a utterly dire outlook.
Finally, spend 20 minutes on this interview and learn something:
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/09192008/watch2.htmlLink to prediction: http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=bubble_and_bail
Med Venlig Hilsen Yours Sincerely Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer, Saxo Fund Management Saxo Bank A/S -London
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