RISK OFF is the answer it seems...

Uni. of Michigan horrible! Simply horrible! http://twitpic.com/dun9h

Final note:

Things make sense again... Uni of Mich shows increased worries about health care and jobs.. AND it highlights my continued issue Obama facing serious headwind at home..

90% of all our propriatory indicators are now poised lower..only one's holding in.. being: "weak US dollar" and stock market..

END OF day today could FINALISE DIVERGENCE in place.. but its too early yet..

Look at the charts from earlier today -

Positionwise it was a long, long day entering the market from RISK ON perspective, but we managed to change things around and came home ok - it was not a great day trading wise, small profit, but I think the day answered or will answer some key questions:

• Remember ALWAYS: Market direction comes 90% from political and ad hoc driven events - mostly political ones - Obama headwind at home becoming the gravity of this market - also Bernanke now facing his re-selection (including Senate approval)...
• Fixed income is in cyclical bullish phase as shown through the prisme of tech. trading yesterday and today. Fed stopping the buy-back is POSITIVE
• The gap between perceived growth/profit and reality is just getting bigger and bigger - a jobless recovery is no recovery - even a Central planned economy like the US end of day needs to do one thing only: Create long-term jobs!
• The consensus view will be tested next week: This could be down, down and neutral Q4 - instead of small down, big up... but that's for gurus not speculators like me.

Views per risk class:

FX:

Still think next major move will be strong US dollar overall - concerned about USDJPY leading everything down today- Risk of indicator or US Dollar weakness. I vote for the first.

Pros: NOK, SGD, USD, CHF
Cons: GBP, EUR, SEK, AUD, ERM-general...

FI:

Strongest view - remain very long cash bonds for 90% of portfolio - (Danish bonds)--
Market got too little exposure presently.

EQ:

Net shorted Danish market today, short S&P with 1020-00 two days above ..stop....
Like US better than Europe. Asia less than Europe.....
Sectors: Shipping, mining, banking at major risk here...

Commodities:

Sell Sugar - excessive spec.
Short Crude...
Short Gold.

Looking to buy GRAINS - long DBA ETF

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen

New markets, new blog?

Dear Investors,

Sorry for small delay in my updates, but shortly - I hope from Friday I will be fully back into the game of commenting and analyzing the market with the promised "models" but also with the usual angle of macro thoughts.

I am constructing a new blog as the old one was started and kept from my former Saxo Bank life. I am desperately trying to mitigate the issue of not bothering my subscribers with having to register yet again - but being the primitive type I am - I may have to do so anyway... the new blog URL is:

http://steenjakobsen.blogspot.com/

Give me a few days to complete it but rest assure starting next week things are back to normal.

On the market I'm 100 pct non-committed in every single market - I find the price action close to random, and despite the "200day moving average" breaks in commodity and stock markets.. I find all thoughts, valuations inflated and without merit - actually I would love you all to read Peter Thiel piece on long-term lack of productivity as it to me is one of the missing links in the present analysis of the market.

When I grew up (Yes, just after the war I know....) I remember how the bright future would be "paperless" - everything would be easier and productivity would rise forever - hmmm... we use more paper than ever and despite the fascination with internet and its ability to make us all "smarter" - one has to ask "are we really smarter"? Better ? Than we were 2o years ago? Alot of the smartness is really convenience - people are not less busy now - en-contraire - there is so little time to be reflective and thoughtfull today than ever before .....with the consquent loss of new frontiers, imagnition running wild - every thing is "priced control" - Resource allocation... we have mini-maxed everything into atoms - atoms which have not independent life or drift....

Remember the long term yield of stock market will have to be: Growth of the economy plus productivity gains and inflation ... Thiel argues there has not been any REAL PRODUCTIVITY gains since the late 1960s.. if so.. we have equation where long-term stock market gain = 0 (zero)inflation + o (zero) productivity + low growth... hmm... not my favourite cocktail, but then again I am simple, agnostic and uneducated independent trader :-)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/14468282/Clarium-Investment-Commentary-The-Wonderful-Wizard-of-Oz

Finally one of my favourite people of 2008 - David Einhorn were back this past week at the Ira W. Sohn Research Investment Conference, the annual hedge-fund conference where just last year he held forth with his now-famous takedown of Lehman Brothers, and Einhorn had a new target: The most over-rated politician in history: The O'- administration.... read on my friends: http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/05/david_einhorn_strikes_again.html

See you in the new format Friday or over the weekend.

Safe trading,

Steen Jakobsen