Service to resume on Monday August 10th, 2009

Dear Readers,

A long summer is coming to an end here on the seaside in Denmark - but this weekend its back to the City and a serious look at the markets again - I have been all but away from everything since Mid-July where I went away extremely confident about further downside - How wrong can you be? Well in my case it was mind-blowingly wrong!!!!

I stil fail to understand major parts of this cycle, but clearly the investment banks are now all busy resetting their US growth numbers to 2 at 3 pct for H2 of 2009.

I'm in no position to disagree honestly, but let's see next week when all the models and analysis is up and running again.

Monday is also the first working day with my partner Jesper Christiansen in our new company, something I have looked forward to all summer.........:

Limus Capital Partners - more on this later, but as of now my new official e-mails becomes:

sj@limuscapital.com

Keep the faith and enjoy the "jolly days of this rally"....a let me leave you with this little "vocabulary" of Geithner/Obama administration: (links from Zerohedge and Olof Lindgren

GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
125K+ jobs lost from GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
unemployment @ 9% = BETTER THAN EXPECTED
unemployment @ 10% = DOW SOARS
unemployment @ 11% = GREEN SHOOT RALLY
unemployment @ 12% = ALREADY FACTORED IN
unemployment = 35% = DOW DROPS 100 POINTS
housing price =1% = RECESSION ENDING
housing collapses = GREEN SHOOT
Housing falls 20% = STABILIZATION
Government spends 1 trillion of OUR dollars = STIMULUS
North Korea fires nuke = RALLY
Israel bombs Iran = 30 MINUTE END OF DAY RALLY
world explodes = ASIA RALLIES
PMI crashes = HUGE RALLY
No jobs are created = RECESSION ALMOST OVER
U.S. debt overwhelming = TOO BUSY RALLYING TO CARE
Consumer stops spending = RETAIL RALLY
Banks are insolvent = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
American auto industry BK = GOOD THING
Banks pass scam stress tests = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
Banks "only need 75 billion = OUT OF THE WOODS
Banks pass a real stress test = NEVER WOULD HAPPEN
Banks pay back tarp = LATE DAY SURGE
Banks can't pay back TARP = EARLY MORNING SURGE
12% mortgage delinquency = GOOD FOR STOCKS
Hundreds of thousands of mortgages underwater = HOUSING BOTTOMED
Dollar rises = RALLY
Dollar crashes = RALLY
Inflation = BULL MARKET
Deflation = BULL MARKET CONTINUES
REFLATION = MASSIVE SHORT COVERING RALLY
Gold rises = STOCKS RALLY
Gold falls STOCKS RALLY BIG
Banks' fake earnings = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
CRE stabilizing= 1000 POINT RALLY
CRE CRASHING = STOCKS SHAKE IT OFF TO RALLY
CONSUMER INSOVENT = CONSUMER IS SPENDING
OIL @ 50 = BULL RALLY
OIL @ 60 = GREEN SHOOT
OIL @ 100 = IMPORTANT RECOVERY SIGN
OIL @ 20 = TAX BREAK

And the one we should all interpret correctly:
NO ONE IS BUYING STOCKS = BILLIONS ON THE SIDELINES

Best summer wishes,

Steen Jakobsen

If at first you don't succeed, find out if the loser gets anything.

Dear Investor,

Traded like a total idiot - please remind me that I am a MACRO trader not a micro trader - it is back to basic for this tosser............

• P&L since inception(Mid-June 2009).... now -125 bps.....

Jobless data tomorrow will we break the magic 10 % in unemployment - On top of this we got short week due to the 4th of July celebration, so Thursday will be major day for data:

The market is expecting this: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

It is also the TURN-DATE/CYCLICAL WINDOW I have looked for: July 2/3

Despite promising to keep the powder dry, I have used considerable dollars on buyin downside in EUR/USD as I continue to see a cyclical change coming with the US having to take stronger currency first - I have have also sold a little more crude - on the back of better technical trading - otherwise I remain with the program believing the next two month could see 880- then 860- and in my opinion even outside chance of even new lows (666 S&P) - based on the extreme euphoria imbedded in all commentaries and media (Yes, I listen to CNBC all day long )

930-935 S&P needs to cap for now - EURUSD 1,4338 the old May high at risk now - this could very likely be me being too negative but I need to stay with my models and play the contrarian although after day like today its tempting to roll-over and go with the flow...

I noticed this one story - supporting my views today on how banks & regionals not been part of the rally.... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCmsKKqx_Xq0

Enough - a long day for me ...

Positions:

Short EURUSD cash and very big in options
Short S&P - took some profit on 905 on 50% yday - long puts August
Short Dax intraday play - expensive...
Gold - stopped out..
Crude added to short..... net short now 68.50.........

Safe trading,

Steen