Dear Investors,
Better performance today now only down a few bps since inception (Mid-June) - the key today was to combine ECB and Non-farm - I haven't look through the actual data yet but loosing 467K jobs and a unemployment rate @ 9.5% things are not good - in fact Mohammed El Erian over at PIMCO got it right in his new piece out on FT.com: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1e06911c-6719-11de-925f-00144feabdc0.html
Unemployment - remains the key issue and as a number of people been stating: To exit this low growth environment we need the two areas which got us there to start performing: I.e: Banking and Mortgage market - and I find it interesting that George Soros in his latest interview goes out the way to tell us - The government has done an ok job but not a good job, as exactly these two issues remains unsolved. The interview is short- does not offer any news, but it is a good reminder on the "situation" at hand: http://online.wsj.com/video/viewpoints-soros-on-obama-and-ailing-banks/B3353A69-8BA2-4CCA-9D41-B346D92F801E.html
Combine the two above opinions and it looks to me like there is high probability of low growth, decoupling and in one or two quarters sharply rising funding rates....
Strategy
FX: Main position right now in short EUR.USD - now only via options but in size...
FI: Bought Danish Government 4/17 today for 75% of cash - also long Bunds on the break of 121.50 - stop trailing one ATR.
COM: Short crude @ 68.45
EQ: Short S&P only now - took profit in DAX....
I have been talking about today potentially being turn-around day for bullishness due to cyclical work done by great friend of mine - and over the next 48 hours of trading we need to see test of 880-890 is this is the case-- in other word: FULL ALERT warranted...
To all my American friends: Happy 4th of July - travel safely .....
Safe trading,
Steen
1 kommentarer:
Dear Investors,
Better performance today now only down a few bps since inception (Mid-June) - the key today was to combine ECB and Non-farm - I haven't look through the actual data yet but loosing 467K jobs and a unemployment rate @ 9.5% things are not good - in fact Mohammed El Erian over at PIMCO got it right in his new piece out on FT.com: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1e06911c-6719-11de-925f-00144feabdc0.html
Unemployment - remains the key issue and as a number of people been stating: To exit this low growth environment we need the two areas which got us there to start performing: I.e: Banking and Mortgage market - and I find it interesting that George Soros in his latest interview goes out the way to tell us - The government has done an ok job but not a good job, as exactly these two issues remains unsolved. The interview is short- does not offer any news, but it is a good reminder on the "situation" at hand: http://online.wsj.com/video/viewpoints-soros-on-obama-and-ailing-banks/B3353A69-8BA2-4CCA-9D41-B346D92F801E.html
Combine the two above opinions and it looks to me like there is high probability of low growth, decoupling and in one or two quarters sharply rising funding rates....
Strategy
FX: Main position right now in short EUR.USD - now only via options but in size...
FI: Bought Danish Government 4/17 today for 75% of cash - also long Bunds on the break of 121.50 - stop trailing one ATR.
COM: Short crude @ 68.45
EQ: Short S&P only now - took profit in DAX....
I have been talking about today potentially being turn-around day for bullishness due to cyclical work done by great friend of mine - and over the next 48 hours of trading we need to see test of 880-890 is this is the case-- in other word: FULL ALERT warranted...
To all my American friends: Happy 4th of July - travel safely .....
Safe trading,
Steen
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