It is only appropriate to quote the great Plato on the morning Madoff gets gets 150 years in prison: http://tinyurl.com/lcfozs
If it was not for all the victims of Madoff - I would not get why we even bother to give the limelight to the one person who makes Charles Ponzi look like an amateur?
On the subject of Ponzi Schemes and Amateurs: Geithner and Obama is up to no good. I am increasingly getting information about deals behind closed doors in China, Japan and the Middle East - no wonder trading Macro is full-time agony these days.
The point being - there is no doubt the US administration is very concerned about the "low delta probability" of their great revival plan not working - Maybe deep down even they doubt the modern day version of Alchemy being produced in front us - hence their need to secure some long-term commitments from overseas lenders - and here China and Japan comes to mind.
Let us not forget the game has changed - until very recently the US and its capital markets (read: Banks) where the only game in town - You want leverage ? I got special offer only for you my friend.... - you know the song.... but now with global trade flows down, GDP down and the outlook for higher taxes being an almost certainty China mainly, but also Japan is looking to spend along the lines of: Think local, buy local ...
Simple mathematics dictates that demographics, growth and savings are higher in Asia than anywhere and the impact long-term will be Asia "charging" higher and higher rates to recycle their capital......and the rightful political power... something very few people seems concerned about.....this is TRUE paradigm shift - this is the end of US hegomonic powers....
For the deals behind the scene orchestrated by Geithner, Bernanke and Summers it looks increasingly like they are using play-books from the early 1980s(Volcker time...) - but more on this when I got some more research done - but clue for you: This last happened in front of major US dollar bull period ending in 1984 - (Yes, I know most of you were not even born then ....but I paid top dollar for shopping groceries in New York as a visitor- I clearly remember the 3,45 USD/DEM back then).....
The position and strategy is unchanged - it is a game of awaiting July 2/3 - or the end half-year and quarter-end which seems to gravitate markets higher - the price is to paid in July and August, at least according to my and others models for cyclical changed...
I am short EURUSD, S&P, and Crude.... none of it really working MTD back to +5 bps .....
More tomorrow.....safe trading ...
Steen
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