onsdag den 18. juni 2008

Inflation comes sailing! Are we too late?

This how inflation looks like!
Source: www.fintag.com

A few comments from personal view - as per usual not predictive powers..comments more than welcome:

IF.. the LEH(http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/so-how-did-lehman-delever-not-very.html) story on how they off-loaded asset to "vehicles" is true it could be major catalyst on biggest story this p.m - too big too fail has been said too often -- look how major australian outfit Backcock & Brown going down and fast!.....Bear etc.. I was around in Chase in early 1990s..not nice!!!!!

  • Small caps & banks getting killed in europe
  • mortgage spreads widening

  • Germany vs P.I.G.S widening
  • US authorities on massive REGULATION CRUSADE.....

  • Inflation totally misunderstood as it come "sailing in" from Asia not induced from US (if you ignore BB and Greenspan feeding frenzy)

  • This is globalisation negative

  • Central bankers left with no credibillity

  • Main bulk of input to US economy spent in Q2- meaning Q3 going to get worse..

  • Yield curve inverted in Europe - killing banking models....
  • Market cant rally even on good Goldman number plus falling crude prices!

  • Market is scared... v. scared.. small investors losing a lot of money--- and on the ready to bail out

Maybe we are all waiting in-vain for the bounce to go net MASSIVE short... I don't know, but this is beginning to feel like 1992 early month before the ERM broke down - we all know the trades, now finesing the entry points---- maybe we are already too late?

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