fredag den 11. april 2008

Quick-and-dirty note... Friday..

<<<==== US Investment banker reporting quarter earnings...

Sorry been busy this week - seems my last post: We need crisis now hit something with a lot of people - more interestingly few people seems to disagree.....this week has been boring...except for GE failing to meet their normally 101% coordinated results! Dont forget this company is so big it can "find" earnings and write ups etc everywhere, but it seems time is running out - the credit card is maxed out!

GE is clear sign to me that the next and for me final step in this financial destruction has started -- oh yes market still believes bottom in place - that banks are doing fine etc - but here is my take:

1. Unemployment is rising and fast 5.1% going to 5.5$

2. Destruction of 2 trl. US dollar worth of credit has happened - which by the way is the exact same amount hedge fund got under total management - Less credit less money to spend.

3. 60% of all corporate funding comes from capital markets ! Ouch!

4. GS and Lehman the most leveraged plays in town... ouch.... tier 2 and tier 3 is getting big that GSs CEO comes out and call the credit crisis over ! Nice try, tell me something, as Fintag asked this morning; Who would you rather trust a independent apolitical organisation like IMF calling for doom-and-gloom or a CEO from major inv. bank who just upped his tier 3 capital by 40% - I know what my choice wud be...

5. GE, one of the few true mega global companies.. Is hurting and hard...

6. G-7 - what a joke - even the central bank knows its waste of time - regulation, regulation, transparency....transparency.. all nice words but like VaR, it a word used which few people understand for real and God forbid to ask for clarification of the word.

7. Less than 12 month Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae was being punished for accouting issues, know US Congress gives them lower capital requirement and 200 bln. extra US dollar to play with - again if this fails - i.e the 200 bln is wasted who will then step in ? The Fed?

8. Socialisation of risk - Inv. bank getting away with murder ... they should trade at tangible asset value, hence Citibank shud be @ 10 US dollar. Why should I pay for "goodwill" from lying banking institutions, please I beg you tell me_

9. Volcker is cool ! Soros is cool and finally read this .... Bob was just voted best manager in this LIFETIME, sounds an awful lot but his piece is first class..


Usual lot: Added short banking this week, more fixed income and long grains..

Long JPY, EUR, MXN, vol and still short Crude (yes, what an idiot)....

Gotta rush to airport .. Nice week-end


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