fredag den 14. december 2007

How to trade noise?

Short Friday notice:

Retail Sales yesterday does change the agenda slightly, for the Goldie-lock people this is sign growth could be some 50 bps higher than expected at the start of the week, but to me, the ever sceptic of any numbers from the US, its bound to be revised down to norm later. PPI also surprised on the upside, and how could it not?

Inflation is real... unlike sighthing of Elvis, but using the core-inflation measure is like pretending Elvis does live!......Anyhow;


Still feel we have 4th wave correction type on our hands.. something like 1440-00 in the Dec future 1430-00 in the SPC.

Fixed income:

Bought myself some gamma and direction yday - feel market will prove Fed wrong on growth, but not on inflation, but mostly its bet on more "satefy" runs to come with S&P testing the above low, plus banking sector results starting to come in now, and with LEH+BoA not doing much to help the issue on crisis.


Still long the US dollar trade, as I write we break last weeks low of 1.4525 - looks to me like there will end of year demand, and I stick by my earlier analysis, when Jan-Nov is down for US dollar, then in 7/8 December is opposite, and DON'T forget EURO is now FUNDING currency....

Long USDNOK, USDCAD, EURGBP.................


Long crude, long grains... need say no more....

Nice week-end


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