Well, this year has had it's up and down for your fund manager, YTD before this month was shy of +200 bps for the year after good performance in July and August, the reversal to normal cost some money. In order to keep head and tail my positions I will start inputting daily postions and thoughts - commentaries welcome.
Present positions (day 1)
Today we moved from long carry into a more risk averse position. Our models showed some nervousness and technically RSI looks to break of many stocks indices.
We also noted that during our model run that fixed income showed clear confirmation of "reflation" idea, but.... we have had two false breaks. Yesterday Gilts broke their buy-entry level only to fall back. The same happened in the belly of the US curve today with 5y breakink 106.11 only to trade higher again. We take this as sign the trades and follow through from Friday has lost momentum.
In itself not that unusual as main bulk of the last two month's Non-farm was the not-present-government-workers to the present government-workers! The reality remains private sector is not producing any jobs at all.
But to the order of business...
We sold EURCHF long with nice profit (1.6704 exit)
We took net loss in EURGBP where the follow through on the weak GBP couldnt carry it pass the 0.6930 in earnest (.6913 exit)
We tried to sell GBPUSD this am only to stopped out - 20437...
We took 1 tic loss on 10y note position 108 23/32
and we initiated new positions in:
EURNOK - Long @ 7.6951 (15% of net value of fund)
EURSEK - We remain short from 9.2017 & 9.1781 (30%)
NOKSEK- short 1.1877 (19%)
JPY c USD p, strike 116, Price 41 pips (Net risk 10 bps)
Dax(Dec)- short 8.055,50 (16%)
10y Notes (dec) - Long 108 23.5/32 (37%)
Return on live porfolio (1): +4 bps
Here It Is...Team Macro Man's 2018 Top Trades - Here it is folks, the 1st annual Team Macro Man Top Trade Ideas for 2018. I love the diversity in the ideas here. Nobody jumped on the short 10y UST ban...
36 minutter siden