fredag den 31. august 2007

Pre Bernanke speech thoughts...

It is the big day for Bernanke, in a few hours we know if he is politician like Greenspan or a true central bank who understand his role.

Market is pricing him to cut, in the last few minutes EURUSD, Silver and Gold all rallied strongly into final hours before "ruling" from the Chairman.

Bush attempt to stem negativ PR from sub-prime into middle America, is late, and from what I can understand of it, not really helping a high number of people.

I note Barclays can not balance their liquidity book, but they can bail out Cairn Capital !!! I note that Bear Stearns High Yield fund lose plea to protect them from litigation in the US. (They filled for Chap. 11 in Cayman Island) but lost .....So.. reputational risk have increased significantly for not only BS, but whole industry.

At the end of this road the financial industry will have changed, and to the better. The Laissez Faire pratices sanctioned by rating agencies have been going on for long, but.... at the end of the day the REAL bubble was created by the very people who now, as per markets wishes, should safe them by cutting interest rates.

It is remarkable to listen to CNBC, and in particular the US market people they got on the show. Most of them deals in black-and-white. Cut now or.....

I for one, have reduced my postions to a minimum, I must admit the last three days up-and-down have tired out even an old trader like myself, but there is yet another month in September. Statistiscally the worst month of the year, but for now the BULLS have it...and with a force.

I remain in "combat gear", let me market price action tell me when the bottom is in, for me this is 4th wave before 5th final correction, but I have, as you very well know, been wrong lots of time before ;-)

Nice week-end.

0 kommentarer: