tirsdag den 10. april 2007

Back and confused..

Goldman Commodity Index... higher and higher..
Couple of things from top of my head;

1. WTO could be something which we should focus on. Its major change of policy for the US who for six years been dancing around with China.

The US Trade rep. is very competent, she knows what she is doing. China already on the wire saying: this is no good. Watch for further news. Hard to see who benefits from trade 'war' escalation - but we have to note the change of US policy.

2. Food inflation. I came in this morning - looked at the economics numbers over the past few days and it struck me have ALL non-US numbers are rising (inflation). This morning Norway, Czech, and Hong Kong re-export prices back up to plus 2.8 pct.
More to the point, food prices are rising fast. In China yoy food inflation now 6 pct and in India prices should be up 50% in the food part.
Hmm... Are we on the brink of new inflation pressure from emerging nations? I think so, but I have no idea about the impact on the markets for now........need some more thinking on that.

My gut feeling right now says:
Buy EUR.USD (@1.3435)
Buy Crude (@ 62.00)
Buy Corn (@ 367.50)
Sell DAX and NASDAQ-100 futures (@ 7216 & 1826.75)
Buy 2 vs. 10y spread. Steeping.

Stay away from carry.....

Upcoming G-7: Non-event. China not even present due to 'time constraints'. I wonder why......... Tomorrow: Fed minutes. What made Fed change their wording.....? Steen

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