torsdag den 10. september 2009

False hopes? False breaks? Next 48 hrs key

Faith, as well intentioned as it may be, must be built on facts, not fiction--faith in fiction is a damnable false hope. Thomas Edison
I'm VERY disappointed in the follow through of Gold and overall on the "RISK ON" environment. My partner Jesper and I read the single biggest amount of POSTIVE reports from all types of asset managers yday they all had this theme:

  • Reflation is on... it's good for risk.... (Low funding, Yield curve,"everything but cash"....
  • Market will implode up... This from three or four major BEARS....
  • Politics rules the game - hence "relax" take some risk.
  • Valuations is only fair not expensive..
  • Sentiments bullish but this is different....

Then add charts like the blow:

http://twitpic.com/h6gwu

(This is Auto regression on cash gold... V. short term 5 days- reflecting the maximum attention span of todays "traders"... ) Note the ADX above 60 back in time vis-a-vis timing...

Finally, bottom line issues:

The breaks in DXY (US dollar index weaker).. Gold above 1000 and Fixed income breaking down (reference 121.00 front contract in Bunds)...

Gold now below 990.00 - Fixed income too close to sell entry for my liking.. and post Bank of England today where is the DXY ?

Finally, I put NO faith in my own predictions.. but for Bank of England I look for BETTER THAN expected talk from BOE....... but then again been wrong before and often...

Conclusion: Wait to see if the above breaks confirms, be nervous about the RECENT steepness of trends in key markets..... 9-11 is tomorrow.....

This trader is trading EXTREMELY light.. but from RISK ON - now NEUTRAL to looking to go short RISK...

Safe trading,

Steen

tirsdag den 8. september 2009

Weaker US Dollar - Strong Gold first warning signal?


Well, it looks more and more like it's up September(risk on) - but what got us talking at todays morning meeting was the changes in fixed income (down), gold (breaking 1000.00) and the US Dollar(Breaking lower)

The main drivers of this upmove has been (in our view):
  • Low global yields - making it impossible to hold cash - hence banks rides the yield curve (lending at ZERO placing at 2-4%).... 
  • The outlook for continued low yields - the QE, then later the Taylor gap....
  • Strong US Dollar - a sign things are good......(although as I have written continuesly about there are also fundamental reasons for strong US dollar: + C/A )
  • Gold has remained in range 900- 1.000 all year (open: 957)...
  • Incoming data improving...
Now in early European trading some of these "conditions" are at risk.....

Gold easily broke 1.000 USD and GBP/USD took out 1.6440/50 and EURUSD took out almost all high bar the June 3rd high 1.4510ish....so now we need monitor the bond market for signs of "wanting more risk premium".... for now bunds looks well offered towards recent low above the  figure 121.00 (Dec contract)......

Why would this, if so, be happening.....Well to my mind this is by-product of the G-10/20 meeting this week-end'.

  • We are going to see continued loose monetary policy well into 2010.
  • We will also have the "stimulus effect" in the budgets. The budget situation in Europe and the US is groteque vis-a-vis the intended Stability Pact....... everyone is looking for more Keynesian help ... the invisible hand is at work, will work and HAVE TO work.... we have several key elections incoming and the how does not want to keep their chaffeur driven car courtesy of the voters? This could be first warning from bond market: IOU's are ok in the short-term, but if this game is going to continue then....we need higher RISK PREMIUM (fact is yields are at, or lower than when S&P was 10% lower.....)
  • Move from real money away from "home bias" - we have seen Denmark and other intra-Europe spreads go out slightly - is this result of the real money moving towards "foreign investments again" after almost 100% domestic exposure - if so... FX impact will be seen....(Japan, EMG looks sweet for these types...)
  • Gold offers the only "tangible" currency (you could add NOK also)... hence the risk appetite

The strategy from us has moved from one of "trying to pick tops"  to "intra day" trading - finding the sweet spot for the day ... .however we remain sceptical on the longivity of the this bull market - but nothing tells the truth better than your profit & loss sheet ;-)

Safe trading,

Steen


mandag den 7. september 2009

Labor day - the cheerleaders been busy...

Back in Copenhagen and over the week-end the G-10 financeminster met and the cheerleaders immediately concluded: This is good - RISK ON.....

However the only worthwhile comment I probably read over the week-end and this morning was from my old collegues in Saxo Bank Research David Karsbøl and Christian Blaabjerg who when asked why they saw market down 20-30% while other saw it up by the same amount replied: Because we are "Austrians" and they are Keynesian.

They could have added - and the investment banks are whatever it takes to paint the world bright and appealing.

The conclusion is correct.....but the mere exercise of trying to predict this market is utterly futile. Even the best "futurists" - only get 10% correct....so why keep trying ....

I do not prescribe to any school, partly due to my lack of intellect, partly because it really does not matter...... as a speculator.... the main ingredients is the amount of stomach pain you can take - and right now there is plenty of acid for the same......

The move off the high in S&P was classic divergence + high sentiment indicators, but even record high unemployment on Friday did not stop the plunge team from getting in line and buying into the close..... then this morning quarterbacking by the investment banks has taken the market yet higher..the incoming data keeps the momentum going on the bull side - and there is some light as seen in this "record of industrial production":
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

So... here we are: The Austrians vs the Keysian, the Investment bank vs. the Hedge Funds, the naive vs realistic ? :-)

Well I'm not taking side yet... our base scenario remains one off:

Down in September/October (Probably more likely in October than September due to the overfocus on how "baaaaaadddddd" September seasonal does - so expect range in September down in October.....

The Q4 overall should be positive: Looks like the exit from the stimulus has been postponed after the US forced other G-10 members to rein in the "urge" to normalise....and the Prez O needs to regain the political focus at home - what he does not need is a second leg of this crisis....

He has plenty on the plate with: Health care (note he is speaking this Wednesday to Congres, Aghanistan and Iran... http://tinyurl.com/nfckbm

So... the best "deal" right now is wait for further confirmation and accept the market is in "positive" spin if for nothing else due to lack of new information......

Strategy:

We remain short GBP into the Bank of England meeting this week...http://tinyurl.com/mlag6s

We are short USDJPY from today @ 93.01 - stop 93.55

Long Bunds on strong performance.....

Small short S&P and DAX - low conviction...... (Research shows day after Labor weak in 9 out 10 days with two positive closings preceding it...)

Short Crude.. still....

Short Gold... mean reversion..

Safe trading,

Steen

fredag den 4. september 2009

Delay is the deadliest form of denial. C Northcote Parkinson

European anti-Bank mood is changing rapidly...to the worse!!! (See below article)

In Dublin today, a place where the Government have less than 17% support in polls - three weeks before Lisbon referendum, but more importantly...the state government fund NAMA is going to announce the "price" i.e discount by which it will take over the "bad loans" of the banks in ireland.. (http://tinyurl.com/n39j5w)

I am EXTREMELY bearish on Europe, its fiscal positioning and its willingness to deal with this crisis - it smells of: Lets buy some time (Obama style) and see if this does not go away.. meanwhile the ordinary people lose their jobs as seen in Non-farm today - but hey:
Things are good .. the data is improving...... joke.. utter joke....Maybe it is time to buy some gold coins, store some water, and canned food....the market, the politicians, my friends all want an easy ride out of this.. but as you learn as a speculator.. .there is no easy way out...only hard work - over and out from Dublin...

Article below courtesy of my partner Jesper Christiansen....

Safe trading and nice week-end

Steen
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

RBS Told Not to Call Subordinated Bonds After Bailout (Update1)
2009-09-04 08:55:32.64 GMT


(Adds analyst comment in fourth paragraph.)

By John Glover
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc,
the largest bank bailed out by the U.K., won’t call $1.6 billion
of subordinated bonds after regulators objected to using state
aid to pay holders of the lender’s lowest-rated securities.
The Financial Services Authority, the U.K.’s market
regulator, told RBS not to redeem early four series of bonds
after the European Commission stated Aug. 19 that banks
shouldn’t use government money to repay equity and subordinated
debt, the Edinburgh-based lender said in a statement today.
One of the four bonds, a 400 million-euro ($571 million)
undated 6.625 percent note, plunged 17 cents on the euro to 69.5
cents today, according to price data compiled by Bloomberg. RBS
is 70 percent owned by the U.K. government after receiving a 20
billion-pound ($33 billion) bailout last year and putting 325
billion pounds of assets into a state insurance program.
“The concern is other U.K. banks could be forced to follow
suit by the regulator,” credit analysts at BNP Paribas SA wrote
in a note to investors.
The Commission is taking a tougher stance on banks rescued
with government cash amid the deepest recession since World War
II. Northern Rock Plc, the first lender nationalized by the U.K.
in the credit crisis, said last month it would defer interest
payments on eight subordinated bonds with an aggregate face
value of about $2.74 billion.
The executive arm of the European Union already told
Bayerische Landesbank, Germany’s second-largest state-owned
lender, and Anglo Irish Bank Corp. to defer payments on
subordinated debt as a condition of getting government money.

State Aid Rules

Last month’s statement from the Commission “made it clear
that banks subject to restructuring under state-aid rules should
not use state aid to remunerate their own capital,” the FSA
said in an e-mail today. Calling the notes “would adversely
affect the ongoing state-aid discussions in relation to RBS,”
the London-based regulator said.
The cost of protecting RBS’s subordinated bonds using
credit-default swaps rose, with contracts climbing 19 basis
points to 321, according to CMA DataVision. Default swaps tied
to subordinated notes sold by Lloyds Banking Group Plc, whose
predecessors were bailed out by the U.K. in October, increased 9
basis points to 297, CMA prices showed.

‘Impacts All Financials’

RBS’s decision not to call the subordinated notes “clearly
impacts all financials where there is government involvement,
most obviously Lloyds,” said Marc Ostwald, a strategist at
Monument Securities Ltd. in London.
Lloyds is “working closely with” the U.K. “to
demonstrate to the European Commission that the group has a
strong plan to exit state aid,” London-based spokeswoman Leigh
Calder wrote in an e-mailed response to questions.
RBS said today that it won’t call the four notes at their
early redemption dates in October. Two of the bonds, with a
combined face value of 500 million euros, are so-called upper
Tier 2 notes, while the other two, totaling A$1 billion ($840
million), are more-senior lower Tier 2 notes, RBS said.
RBS was hurt after taking over Amsterdam-based ABN Amro
Holding NV, which left it saddled with bad debts and depleted
cash reserves, leading to the biggest-ever loss
reported by a U.K. company. RBS stock rose 2.6 percent to 56.45
pence in London today.
Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange
for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a
company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point on
a contract protecting 10 million euros of debt from default for
five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year.

For Related News and Information:
Top bond stories: TOPH
Top Finance news: TOPFIN
For RBS bond stories: RBS LN TCNI BON
Credit crunch news: NI CRUNCH

--With assistance from Michael Shanahan, Andrew Macaskill and
Tony Aarons in London. Editors: Paul Armstrong, Michael Shanahan

To contact the reporter on this story:
John Glover in London at +44-20-7073-3563 or
johnglover@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Paul Armstrong at +44-20-7330-7185 or
Parmstrong10@bloomberg.net

Delay is the deadliest form of denial.

torsdag den 3. september 2009

Ireland, a two speed Europe and October 2nd new EVENT risk day




I will not claim to be an expert on Ireland...more so on EU ... but as macro manager the October 2nd Irish Lisbon Referendum has EVENT RISK written all over it..

I have in my primitive way tried to do a few links which could help out forbackground (Bottom of the blog)

Market risk:

  • EUR currency risk clearly,
  • Government Fixed Income spreads could expand & CDS the sam
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Presently travelling in Ireland - and I found to my own surprise that the upcoming poll (October 2nd) on the Lisbon II agreement is in serious danger of being derailed despite ALL of the special deals done by the EU to get this through...

Below there is series of links with the last one - the new website by Irish Times being the most up to date... the issue here:

IF ---- Ireland votes NO again Europe is effectively in a position where it needs to move to a two speed set-up, as the Lisbon agreement is ratification of serious of changes... among them EU President ....

A two speed Europe.. is one step closer to... my ultimate call of a Europe being broken up... although thisi s 20 years from now.. ---- DO NOT forget that even the most simple monetary unions in history ultimately ALWAY breaks up as the economic headwinds comes in....

but.. it also a serious blow to a more competitite Europe etc..

This is NOT yet on anyone radar - to be honest it was not on mine,
before coming to Ireland yesterday...

Otherwise:

Took profit on most positions on the lows yesterday... but now in the process of reselling...GBPUSD, S&P, DAX, and buying fixed income... yday was 90% down day, so either we get strong Friday rebound or there is imminent test of 980 critical support coming....

Safe trading,

Steen


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0903/1224253745004.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon

http://www.ireland.com/home/Latest_opinion_poll_shows_FF_support_record_low/maxi/fast/news/irnews/237610

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/lisbon-poll-reveals-growing-optimism-on-economic-crisis-1873250.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/indepth/lisbon2009/

tirsdag den 1. september 2009

Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana. Groucho Marx (1890 - 1977)

Well it's now September...and market is busy trying to figure out which is more important:

The negative falling Chinese market (down more than 20% from peak...Chart: http://tinyurl.com/n784hw Hang Seng divergence vs. S&P ...

or the rising FEEL-GOOD-FACTORS as seen in the economic data....

Now let's start with the "improving data" :

First, data is late, very late relative to the decision making of a macro speculator - so late that they are largely uninteresting, this does not mean there is not people and investors looking over each and every data point - but let's face it: if you inflate an economy with TRILLIONS of US dollars the data will improve - the surprise is to some extent that they are not even better - the fact sentiment indicators now shows the economy is out of recession, is...at best useless - at worst confusing.

Bank lending and housing market is still falling, yes the fall is slowing, but there is NO CAPITAL incentive to neither increase balance sheet of the banks or.....for the home buyers to increase their bids - even 1-timers tax credit is hard sell, and when the first level of sales is done, the banks have plenty of homes on their books to sell.... please do NOT let yourself get carried away with this nonsense.

The sentiment data is now the most bullish in years..... my friends, neighbours and their dogs are all telling me how much money they are making in the markets (you seem to have forgotten the fact they lost 70% last year...but short-term memories are good for "investors"....)

Check this blog on the very issue: HTTP://www.tradersnarrative.com/will-september-kill-the-rally-2912.html

I can't say we are printing money, but somehow we are keeping an even keel in this market, waiting, waiting and waiting for some final direction to play out.........The fixed income market is stubbornly bid - and lately we have noticed FI carries more weight than other markets... we also

note how Crude is leading forex/equity: HTTP://twitpic.com/fz41k/full

The commitment is relatively low, but here is the present positioning:

Short S&P, Short DAX, short shipping, short Norway Index... - all with medium conviction. Entry levels relatively ok - leaving room for......stop loss --- Stop Loss.. two closings above high..

Short GBP/USD - short since 1.65ish - target 1.35/1.40 minimum - The UK is falling out of bed - as confirmed by PMI today..... also long DXY (US Dollar index)

Commodities: Short Crude since 64ish....

Fixed income: Long 90% of cash in short-term Danish Government bonds and small long Bunds...

August performance was small down......The Puma Macro and other funds will launch later this month with daily pricing...

Safe trading,

Steen