I must admit I for a couple of hours was slightly impressed by Fed and its action yesterday. Creating credit at 25% of their balance sheet - accepting "junk" in exchange for treasuries sort of made some sense - but then......
Think about it: The US tax payers gets junk on the book of Fed, and as Jim Rogers said this morning: "Is Bernanke going to fly around in his helicopter and collect rent?" - It is absurd the mere thinking you can protect the world, in this case, the financial world from recession.
For some reason the central bankers of the world takes their friends on Wall Street, Bank Street (CW), and Frankfurt more serious than anything else. It is like there are two levels of institutions today
The first level being investment banks and broker who Fed will do ANYTHING to proctect, and the other hand Private Equity fund should not expect any grace - so if you are leverage outside the investment banks you are DOOMED, if you are inside you will get more and more....
The moral dilemma is compounding on the Fed as Rogers also said: There is not any 29 year old farmer driving Massaretti's but there are 1000s upon 1000s in Wall Street, London and Tokyo.... should the average American get to pay for issues which: 1. Made his mortgage more epxensive (yes, avg. mortgage went UP yday not down) 2. Who got paid million US Dollar bonus' 3. To keep investment alive. I dont think so.. and please stop crying. This is capitalism not socialism, Bernanke is the biggest Socialdemocrat I have ever seen - only second to the total lost ex Chairman Greenspan who should have stopped while he could still run 60 yard dashes in less than 3 minutes!
Listening to the moron commentators, the happy go lucky ones, makes me sick, good think I am going to my summerhouse for the whole of the Easter with NO TV whatsoever .........but thats another story.
The strategy is still unchanged....
FX: The market continues to fade the weak US dollar, although I believe a stronger US dollar is the way to solve many of todays issues I think its only matter of time before 1.5500 goes - The ECB, mainly Weber, is out-of-control with their hawkish talk, but inflation is the root of evil, but confidence is the major issue.
Would you buy anything from guy like Bernanke, who could not sell a cold Coke in Sahara desert? (He would be looking for ways to give away his only Coke, and forward sell 10 others he doesnt own!).....
On top of this, 2 year US rates will hit 1.00 pct inside next 1 or 2 month, making the REAL RATES massively negative.
We are long EURUSD, short USD.SGD, Long EURSEK.......
FI: We have some luck shortening the 30y yday, but took position off when it dawned on me, this move is merely based on too short positions in the equity market.
We are still in doubt about inflation vs. recession - I note 2 yrs swaps down and so is 3 month fwd-fwd US dollars, but for how long... still interestedin high yield corporate bonds...
Equity:
I like primitive indicators, this one caught my eye yesterday, before the latest Helicopter Ben action:
If this is not giving reason for short-term jump I dont know what will. There has been 20 3% moves up in S&P in the last x years, ALL of them has happened in bear markets. Jumps like yesterday is the very basic integral part of a bear market, where politicians and policy makers will be trying to "do whats good for the electorate" - My foot - the less they do, the better. Dont ever forget the very success of Bill Clinton presidency was he didnt achieve ANY of his stated goals. Nothing was done in 8 years, and the US economy bloomed!
We are short DAX through options - not working -
Commodities:
Well ONE position you do need is: GOLD - BB is desperate trying to give you Gold at 1.500 US dollar before year is over - using 25% of Fed balance sheet to buy crap will create more inflation not less......
Agriculture fundamentals keeps improving: http://www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story/data/1205239812843.xml
Enough for now - enjoy the next few days of joy, or even hours....
Steen
0 kommentarer:
Send en kommentar